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To: Jdaasoc who wrote (63981)	1/9/2001 8:49:39 PM
From: jim kelley	Respond to of 93625

Stinging criticism from me? Never! <g> IMO Intel will make their cross over. They were ahead of schedule in the switch over to big wafers and .13 micron and I believe they also have their copper process working as well. So Intel can produce these chips in whatever quantities they may need this year. Capacity is not the issue you are purporting it to be. With respect to demand, Intel's objectives for the year were 10% growth in the PC arena and 18% growth overall. I suspect Intel will be taking back a lot of the chip set business that Via and some of the other Taiwanese companies took from them last year. Why? Because Intel has not licensed them to produce the P4 chip set. This incremental business should help them meet or exceed their 10% growth target in the PC business arena. I do not share your disdain for their 2001 projection. It makes a lot of sense to switch as much production to the P4 as possible which has higher per unit prices to the extent that they can. They are also reducing the cost of producing P3 and Celerons enormously by migrating production to these new high efficency production lines. The P4 is quite economical on a .13 micron process with big wafers etc. The higher growth rates were to be in their "high growth" new businesses. We will have to wait and see what they have to say about any first half reductions in production. Most economist believe the 2nd half will be a return to normal growth patterns. Also, Europe is picking up strength now and is expected to be stronger this year than last. Europe should be a big help to Intel. Software optimized for the P4 will appear this year and the P4 clock speeds will be rising to well over 2 Ghz. This will allow Intel to take back market share from AMD at the high end. At the low end INtel will be by far the low cost producer and I expect they will take market share at the low end from AMD. The P4 will be a very attractive product. The over all unit sales of PCs will be affected by price reductions which will occur because of the increased competion. Q1 will probably be the worst quarter but then it is anyway. JK