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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (250)	1/10/2001 11:40:26 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95648

Scott, >The other fascinating possibility is that Mr. Market really did see the downturn coming in June< That bothers me no end. Who IS this Mr Market and how can he predict so well when nobody else can? Gottfried - not speaking in jest

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (250)	1/10/2001 7:40:09 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95648

Scott, Yes, last year we did a lot of commiserating on the KLIC thread about the great earnings outlook, very low PE(close to, if not the lowest in the group) and the low stock price. We were convinced it was going to recover(I know I fervently believed it was going to make me wealthy<gg>). At the time it made no sense, but now in hindsight, it isn't so hard to understand - the entire NASDAQ was on its way down - much more than I ever thought it would! There were a lot of factors, all coming together, that caused the "NASDAQ crash". As for the semi-equip group, they came down as well. None were immune, but some a little more than others. I don't claim to know why KLIC was the hardest hit in the group in terms of downward estimate revisions. Now, however, since early December, the group is on the upswing. The group action reminds me of the period beginning on 9 October 1998, when the group, and the NASDAQ, started their ascent. There have been many downgrades of the semi-equips since early December, but it hasn't stopped their upward climb for the last 6 weeks. How much longer can this go on - I wish I knew. I see all sorts of conflicting opinions on where we go from here in terms of stock prices. If the market can look beyond the next 6 to 9 months of weakness in sales, bookings and profits, the upward trend of semi-equip(and other sectors, as well) stock prices will continue. That is assuming the Fed has the right prescription for getting the economy back on the growth track. For now, we have to take it one day at a time. Don W.