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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KevinMark who wrote (66456)	1/10/2001 1:57:23 PM
From: Winston Lee	Respond to of 99985

I see a number of minor positives in the market: 1. Look at the strength in ORCL - it started going down in late October and lost nearly half its value over a couple months on rumors, weak TAs, etc. It bottomed when all the shorts were calling for it to go to $15, then went right back up. Now,it is on the verge of a breakout. If the recession scenario is correct, ORCL should be breaking down also. 2. The breakdown in JDSU appears to be moderating. JDSU broke down twice - late October, then again in December, and appears to be making a triple bottom. If JDSU follows ORCL, then its recovery is perhaps another month away. 3. JNPR has not come close to the spring lows, despite the breakdown in CSCO. That tells me that leadership stocks are changing - from ITWO to ORCL, CSCO to JNPR, etc. Despite its monster valuation and continued short attacks, the resilance of the stock is quite impressive. If ORCL and JNPR break down in a big way - it means 1 of 2 things - capitulation (in which case you buy) or oncoming recession (too early to buy). Market response to earnings, guidance and additional cut in interest rate in late January is the key.

To: KevinMark who wrote (66456)	1/10/2001 1:59:30 PM
From: John	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I firmly believe Chambers' forward looking negative remarks today are merely indicative of him setting the bar as low as possible for 2Q. Look for the same type of bombast from all the other big tech CEO's over the next couple of weeks. Then when 2Q rolls around, it will be much easier for them to "beat expectations." The more things change, blah blah blah... John