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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JakeStraw who wrote (16273)	1/10/2001 2:29:48 PM
From: Tim Luke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

jake, i see this a pure sucker rally today in the techs....chambers little comment today could be a setup for them warning...i would not hold any techs until all teh earnings are out...buy the dips before the fed but not before

To: JakeStraw who wrote (16273)	1/10/2001 2:41:01 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

>> If the market feels a company's growth prospects are diminshing the stock price will go down...pure & simple... I agree with the above statement. However, that's not what you said the first time. You said a falling stock price meant the company's growth prospects were dropping. A falling stock price means many things, including the fact the market is worried about the over-all economy. As for the fiber optics' industry, the following Deutsche Bank report on Aixtron [AIXG]was published on Jan. 9, 2000, and indicates strong growth in the sector: [SDLI buys equipment from Aixtron as well as from Newport] <<<< * With a global market share of 54% in 1999, Aixtron leads by a wide margin in the production of MOCVD equipment used in the manufacture of compound semiconductors. * We estimate CAGR of 23% in the market for compound semiconductors from 1999 – 2003E. Furthermore, we believe this growth to be sustainable in the medium term and non-cyclical, contrary to the more mature market for silicon-based semiconductors. * More important for Aixtron in our opinion, demand for equipment used in manufacturing compound semiconductors should anticipate the expected rise in demand for compound semiconductors themselves. * Owing to Aixtron’s innovative strength, we are confident that the company’s sustainable growth will match or exceed the increase in demand for compound semiconductors. The company’s recent development partnerships in the fields of organic LEDs and ferroelectric/dielectric materials are evidence of its capacity to adapt its core competencies to new applications. * Aixtron already boasts healthy margins (we forecast an EBIT margin of more than 21% in 2000$) and should achieve sustainable operational leverage through rapid top-line growth. * Both Aixtron’s order book and order intake stand at record levels. The company has accelerated its planned investment in production capacity expansion to meet the faster than expected growth demand. Our DCF analysis suggests a fair value of Euro 105 per share for Aixtron. However, we believe Aixtron merits a valuation premium due to the greater than average security we see in its earnings growth forecasts, dominant market position, strength of management and impressive track record of growth. A value of Euro 120 in our view gives the share an adequate premium to reflect these factors and implies a PEG of 1.5 times 2001E and 1.0 times 2001 E (based on 73% CAGR in earnings from 2000 –02E). We therefore place a Buy recommendation on the share. . . .