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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OpusX who wrote (6010)	1/10/2001 8:40:59 PM
From: Kapusta Kid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

I still track it, although I often wonder why. VIX certainly pinpointed the Labor Day top perfectly (i.e., a 5-day Mave of the VIX close vs. the S&P). The moving average dropped to @19, indicative of tons of complacency. Back in April and May, the MA made a double top; the second top preceded the beginning of the rally by a couple of weeks. But on 12/27/00, the MA surpassed both those peaks (and has since declined). Schaeffer may be correct, but I've noticed some strangeness lately. E.g., the ARMS Index has reached severely overbought levels lately. This is not unusual in a strongly trending down market. What is unusual is that on January 3, the big up day, the NYSE ARMS reading was 1.17, which is indicative of pretty strong selling. This was on a day in which the S&P rose 64 points! One of the biggest up moves in history and there was stealth selling. Anyone remember Joe Granville? One of the things he said (before he lost his mind and started predicting earthquakes and stuff) was that at major tops and bottoms, there's always a HOOK. A HOOK is one of those factors that everyone watches. But this time, THE HOOK doesn't act normally and it fools the majority. If anyone knows what THE HOOK is this time, please PM me.

To: OpusX who wrote (6010)	1/10/2001 9:02:44 PM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 19219

207.61.23.99 but with an 80% drop in volume over the last 6 years is it really worth keeping the vix on our radar screens anymore?>>> opus, we discussed this very issue in late august as the vix was probing below 20 on the sa thread, and it turns out the low vix going into the sept top was a great sell signal as has the vix probing into the 34-35 area lately been at least a good st to intermediate term buy signal, depending what u were buying. so even though the market sample has become a smaller percentage of overall option buyers, the sentiment swings in oex options have been decent signals, but with any indicator you don't have absolutes of overbought and oversold, because market condition change. i would like to see em come up with a vix for qqq options. remember the sentiment picture in august and september, the fed was done and up up and away when the vix was low. now with the vix vascillating between 25-37 the sentiment is decidly bearish, talk about recession, talk about nasdaq going to 2000, 1500 or even lower. contrary opinion is an art, not a science, as is any t/a. between true contrary opinion situations, there are trends and sometimes trends go farther than most people think. just think about all those traders who thought that the bearish sentiment was way overdone in 1930, just think about all those traders who thought that bullish sentiment was way overdone in january of 1999.