To: JustTradeEm who wrote (16414 ) 1/11/2001 12:57:51 AM From: pat mudge Respond to of 24042 The Deutsche Bank report on Aixtron (supplier to SDLI) shows no slowing in demand for sophisticated MOCVD equipment for compound semiconductors. <<< In contrast to the semiconductor industry, where the computer segment is still the largest applications segment, compound semiconductor applications are mainly (at an estimated 75-80%) in the optoelectronic segment. * Optoelectronics : at $8.5 billion this segment accounted for about 78% of total compound semiconductor sales in 1999 · Electronics: this segment accounted for about $2.47 billion or approximately 22% of total sales in 1999. Telecom modules take the main share of optoelectronics sales. This sector includes both the chips and the packaging of the modules. The segment for visible light emitting diodes (LEDs) is nearly as large as the telecom modules segment in terms of revenue. However, at lower unit costs, unit volume for visible LEDs is significantly larger. In electronics, analogue ICs lead the field in terms of revenue, followed by digital ICs and discrete field effective transistors (FETs). An important difference between the compound semiconductor and semiconductor industry is that the former is not a cyclical market. Thus we expect the compound semiconductor industry to reach at least $25.3 billion in sales in 2003 compared with $11 billion in 1999, implying CAGR of 23%. Like the semiconductor industry as a whole, we expect compound semiconductors to benefit from an increase in demand for sophisticated electronic materials for wireless data networking and digital consumer applications. In 1999, compound semiconductors sales into the optical telecom market were $2.6 billion. Growth in demand for each type of compound semiconductor used in fibre optics (source lasers, pump lasers, detectors and electronics) is over 40% per annum. Hence the pressure is increasing for semiconductor companies to increase both the size and the sophistication of their operations.We expect global networking capex to reach $64 billion in 2001 and to continue to grow at CAGR of 22% over the next two years. The bulk (an estimated 95%) of costs for fibre-optic networks usually lies in the optoelectronic parts to light the fibre rather than for the raw fibre. Hence, we expect unit costs for optoelectronic devices (and for the underlying compound semiconductor materials) to gradually fall in order to promote the build-up of the fibre-optic telecommunications infrastructure.As a result, the compound semiconductors required for these applications will experience a notable increase in demand, stemming from the currently relatively small niche applications. In this case, MOCVD technology will also be the preferred solution to boost productivity and promptly respond to a major increase in the final demand. >>>>