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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: accountclosed who wrote (88243)1/11/2001 10:01:19 AM
From: Freedom Fighter  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
 
Ant,

That was a great post!

Wayne

>>in baseball, players make the hall of fame for being great starting pitchers, relief pitchers, fielders, sluggers, singles
hitters, base stealers, etc.

similarly, in the market, there are many paths to success, not just one.

in your post, i see at least three themes.

1. economic conditions as they currently exist, for example, inventories The horrific inventories continue to build
and the consumer consumer economic activity has entered free-fall mode

2. possible federal reserve action and whether that will be effective or not.

3. investor psychology.

===
the element i would like to add to the discussion is that i think an investor needs to decide what area or areas of
market analysis, he/she is good at. some investors succeed because they are masters at reading and reacting to
investor psychology. other investors are masters at understanding the federal reserve and the impact of their likely
action on the economy and how the stock market will react to the action and the economic change. other investors
are excellent at looking at balance sheets and ferreting out details others miss that may later become important to
the market. still others have a vision of growth in a certain sector. etc.

i think it is a mistake for an investor to imagine that they are good at everything. so if i were looking at your post, in
terms of "what are you missing", which of these elements that you bring to the table have you been most successful
at deploying? the answer might be different for different people. i don't think our job here is to come up with the
"right" solution for everyone, but something that works for us individually.



To: accountclosed who wrote (88243)1/11/2001 9:09:33 PM
From: Earlie  Respond to of 132070
 
Ant:

As always a thoughtful commentary. Much appreciate that you take the time to provide your views.

Your synopsis is dead on. Those are the three themes. Now how the heck do we decide their relative impact on the market? (g)
No wonder trading millionaires are a rarity.

Best, Earlie