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Gold/Mining/Energy : North American Palladium(AMEX:PAL)- PGM Producer -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GeoDude who wrote (838)	1/11/2001 10:11:22 AM
From: Bruce Robbins	Respond to of 976

LIA: You can look at price spike in any metal historically and see that they never last very long. BUT, all of the other metals have large reserve bases (marginal mines that can be brought into production etc), scrap components etc that can be drawn on. PGEs do not have a large reserve base- there are very few mines in production and very few places that have potential to be mines. There is a large scrap component to PGMs which will add to the supply this year- how much is anybody's guess. I can just imagine the number of scrap auto dealers scrambling to cut those Pd autocatalysts off quickly right now and feed them to JM <g>. As for what is stockpiled, there can't be much seeing as there has been a market deficit fed by the stockpile over the past three years. Perhaps that has something to do with price spike. The biggest component of change IMO will be demand. The automakers will try to get Pt-Pd autocatalysts out sooner than later, but both metals are in a similar situation. I am not aware of any effective non-PGE autocatalysts. In brief, unless the environmental regulations change on auto emissions, I do not think use in autocatalysts will drop. BUT with fewer cars being produced this year, demand should drop off. BUT not all automobiles and trucks are up to code and so that might offset the drop in demand. My prediction is that at some point Pd will drop in price and Pt will rise in price. Perhaps they will meet somewhere in the middle. I do not foresee Pd at below $300 for the next few years however. Bruce

To: GeoDude who wrote (838)	1/11/2001 10:26:56 AM
From: Bruce Robbins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 976

Spot Pd up this morning while March contract down. Here is what the Jan 11 UBS Warburg daily report had to say: thebulliondesk.com PLATINUM GROUP METALS – Comment: Palladium, and to a lesser extent platinum, moved higher yesterday as evidence of a nasty squeeze in pgms grows. Throughout the climb in the palladium price in 2000 palladium fwds remain essentially unmoved. Not so in 2001, already rates have moved strongly higher and we would expect palladium rates to continue to firm whilst spot liquidity remains depressed. Platinum rates have moved a little, but as in the spot market, the driver of this pgm rally is palladium rather than platinum. View: Russian shipments will determine the price action of palladium over the next few months. If shipments do not resume within the next week or two then the price could head much higher. Platinum is being held at the current levels by the strength in palladium. Although both metals should remain firm through 2001, it is hard to see the current levels maintained (especially palladium) once this likely temporary delay in Russian shipments resumes.