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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (8766)	1/11/2001 3:43:55 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 34857

re: 2001 Issues & Predictions - EMC World Cellular Database >> Key Issues Expected During 2001, and Some Predictions EMC World Cellular Database December 2000 Despite efforts to replace it, voice will remain the 'killer application'. The overwhelming requirement of users will continue to be a reliable voice service at a moderate cost. Although enhanced data modes will begin to appear during 2001, there remains little firm evidence of real growth in user demand for these services. As some markets begin to approach or exceed the 100% penetration of population mark, there will be a determined shift in emphasis from an increase in absolute subscriber numbers to growth in airtime usage and associated revenue. In preparing for this shift, those relying on it must bear in mind that positive evidence for the take-up of transaction based m-commerce has not been forthcoming in 2000. Questions probably persist in the minds of consumers over the security of m-commerce solutions and whether goods and services are more conveniently bought over a mobile data interface than over the fixed internet or indeed in a shop. The uptake of stock-trading services in the Far East gives some indication that where real-time information and response collide, demand for mobile applications which can deliver instructions securely and near instantly does exist. This emphasis on increased usage has resulted in an almost accidental explosion in SMS traffic in the year 2000. Although an inherent feature of the GSM specification, SMS was never designed with person to person messaging in mind. Despite this, mature Nordic operators are reporting 7-10% of wireless revenues being attributed to SMS traffic. Based on GSM Association SMS worldwide traffic reports, EMC estimates that SMS traffic per month per GSM subscriber has tripled from year end 1999 to year end 2000 averaging 30 SMS per subscriber per month. Handset shortages - particularly of top-of-the-range models - will continue to have an impact on the industry . There will be some impact to planned introduction of GPRS; there will be severe impact on the dates for planned 3G launches. Third generation chipsets are still at an early stage of development and considerable progress is required in the development of battery technology to support the planned applications. A key indicator will be provided by the presence, or otherwise, of working prototype handsets as opposed to design concepts, at early exhibitions such as the GSM World Congress, CeBIT 2001, and CTIA. Nokia will continue to hold its dominant position as world market leader of the handset business. In the area of delivery of data services and content NTT DoCoMo will continue its determined efforts to export its established i-MODE services outside Japan. Trials may be expected in various European countries, USA, Brazil, and Hong Kong. As with fixed internet products, there is likely to be increased emphasis on phones which support multiple microbrowsers, available to manufacturers for no licence fee, such as Read HTML, c-HTML or XML compatible versions. WAP's position within the overall expansion of the field is unlikely to improve. There is little prospect of recovery from a legacy of failed user expectation and unsuccessful marketing of the technology rather than the access to content. GPRS systems will come on stream during 2001 and have the potential to stimulate the market for wireless data. Success will depend on the ability of the operating companies to market the services in an attractive way, to ensure that performance matches expectation at a reasonable tariff level, and to secure a reliable supply of handsets. There is continuing confusion over the level of service that will be provided by GPRS. There are still frequent references to data speeds of 115Kbps or even 171Kbps. It is clear that in a practical, operational network, data download speeds are unlikely to exceed 30Kbps; the true 'character throughput speed' has yet to be assessed. However, the ability to provide good performance at these speeds, when operating on a packet based system, should not be underestimated. Given the likely delays in widespread availability of 3G, there is scope for optimism over the market potential for GPRS. EDGE technology has been proposed to boost network capacity and operating speeds. However, there is no real implementation commitment from any significant number of operators, and there is no indication that any user devices supporting EDGE are currently being planned. Proposals to use EDGE as a path towards 3G in TDMA systems are looking less likely to proceed, especially in light of the recent decision by AT&T to pursue a path structured around W-CDMA rather than TDMA/EDGE. Some TDMA operators, particularly in Latin America, are now looking to overlay their networks with GSM/GPRS capability so that they can offer high level data functionality and open their networks to the advantages of worldwide GSM roaming. Notes for editors: EMC has been researching and publishing market intelligence for the wireless industry since 1985. EMC's World Cellular Database provides constantly updated research information on wireless markets, products, networks, subscriber statistics and rolling five-year forecasts for over 200 countries, tariffs, infrastructure suppliers and products, cellular terminals and investors worldwide. The World Cellular Database is the source of EMC's products and services: World Cellular Information Service, World Cellular Datapacks, Regional & Technology Reports and the Insights. << - Eric -