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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Stoctrash who wrote (37816)1/11/2001 6:02:08 PM
From: Bruce Brown  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
BB,

Nobody wanted to answer me on this??


It's been oft discussed on this thread as well as the Qualcomm thread. Start hitting the 'previous' button...

BB



To: Stoctrash who wrote (37816)1/11/2001 6:04:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
Fred,

Nobody wanted to answer me

Sorry you're feeling ignored. :)

For what it's worth, the reason I didn't respond to your post is that you might be right and you might be wrong. I've posted often that it almost always takes a lot longer for products to be adopted than most investors in those products think will happen.

Whereas you mention that QCOM's stock might get clobbered if the adoption doesn't live up to expectations, I agree entirely. But that's more of a short-term view than I use, so I really don't care if the stock gets clobbered so long as it is immensely successful five or ten years down the road.

--Mike Buckley



To: Stoctrash who wrote (37816)1/11/2001 8:18:15 PM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
re: 3G - The Wireless Multimedia Tornado

<< Can you explain to me why my thinking is fouled up or what I may be missing about the whole 3G thing?? >>

Mobile Lifestreams, Ltd, a UK consultancy, has a very interesting and positive view on 3G that is differrent than many others I've seen particularly in its emphasis on entertainment, and it's IMPORTANT emphasis on Voice:

>> Summary of Mobile Lifestreams' View on 3G

As detailed in its full "Data on 3G" report, Mobile Lifestreams believes relating to 3G:

- 3G can be thought of as 2.5G services such as GPRS plus entertainment (games, video, mobile multimedia) plus new terminals. 3G brings with it significantly more bandwidth. Whereas GPRS terminals will have the same range of form factors as today's 2G phones do, many 3G terminals will be video centric.

- There is a clear business case for investing in 3G for existing network operators that are facing congested 2G networks. Voice traffic over 3G networks will be the cash cow that supports and ensures the 3G business case can pay for itself. The main positive (rather than defensive) reason for mobile network operators to secure 3G network licenses is to solve capacity issues in terms of enabling far greater call capacity than today's digital mobile networks allow.

- Nonvoice (data) traffic will also be huge, with new mobile multimedia applications such as mobile postcards, movies and music driving new applications and services along with corporate applications. Applications and services available through the Internet, intranet and extranet will drive the interest in and traffic on 3G networks.

- Providing that network operators adopt an open model to all Internet traffic, the business case for 3G fuelled by both greater data and voice traffic is clear and Mobile Lifestreams is confident that the business case for winning and rolling out a 3G network is compelling. If the network operator insists upon a closed model in which data traffic is funneled primarily through its own in-house portal or limits access to its customers for eCommerce and other Internet services, the business case is endangered.

Third Generation technology is essential - think about the huge change that will happen in the next five years from today's rudimentary and crude text based if elegant services such as Short Message Service evolved to moving video clips.

- It is often assumed that early adopters will be corporate customers for 3G, but Mobile Lifestreams expects that since consumer electronics devices as their name suggests appeal to consumer markets and will have 3G built in. Mobile multimedia- games, entertainment and the like are much more consumer oriented that the buttoned down sober suited business people. Mobile Lifestreams expects 3G to be a consumer revolution and not a corporate one.

- Many people will not have a fixed phone at home. Preventing this until now has been the slow speed of mobile data in 2G and even so called 2.5G technology that has made Internet access the principle application for home phones.

- There will be a lot of suppliers of mobile terminals as Japanese, mobile handheld computer manufacturers (Palm, Microsoft), information appliance and IT suppliers enter the global mobile terminal market. Mobile enabled devices will proliferate as all portable consumer electronics devices get mobile communications (and short range wireless communications) technology built-in. The successful handset vendors will be those that can deliver new products rapidly and reliably. <<

<< God forbid I have to get nasty and turn the Rant Mode ON just to get a response. >>

Rant at SI <g>

- Eric -