To: JohnG who wrote (6104 ) 1/12/2001 10:44:34 PM From: Ramsey Su Respond to of 197032 No, China's actions are always much slower than their words. Whenever CDMA from a China company is installed, there will be an accompanying puff of immodest reports about unique Chinese conributions and wizardry. John, I have often marveled at your vast knowledge and ability to predict how a nation of over 1 billion people would act. May be I should buy you a beer at the shareholders meeting and you can educate me on the intricacies of Chinese behavior. As for what China would do, I can only venture some wild guesses. 1) WTO talks have resumed on Jan 10. The last I read was that it should last about 10 days. I guess the US is committed now and I have no idea what other road blocks may exist. So I doubted if we will hear anything from China unless it is strategically necessary. 2) With the 8 licensees and the recent news from China, it is quite apparent that China would prefer to award as many contracts as possible to domestic manufacturers, if they are to launch CDMA. Afterall, why repeat the GSM fiasco? Needless to say, every foreign vendor with the exception of qcom would cry foul, if ChinaUnicom's contracts are awarded heavily to ZTE, Datang or some of the JVs. Again, logic would dictate that China should keep quiet about any announcements. 3) China is in the process of privatizing. Unlike the mess in Russia, they have adopted the good old capitalistic approach - via the stock market. China Telecom and a ton of non-telecom related firms are scheduled to IPO in various markets. I think those damn commies are actually pretty savvy capitalists <ggggg>. They are in their version of a quiet period and I doubted if you will hear a word from them unless it serves a promotional purpose. 4) The two most influential leaders of China, ZhuRhungji and Jianji Ming both visited the US last year. They tried their version of ping pong diplomacy. Zhu went home with egg on face. Jiang appeared on 60 minutes, even recited the declaration of independence, and did not exactly drew a fraction of the attention that they had hoped for. So I doubted if they are going to make much noise unless they have to. I am not as knowledgeable on China as you are so take my comments for what it is worth. Ramsey