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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (124723)	1/11/2001 9:49:34 PM
From: Gary Ng	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Mary, Re: It is because of their incredibly inaccurate guidance history that I suggest they set guidance to a level they know they can achieve instead of shooting from the hips with some macho bravado type of estimate (without rhyme or reason)that they are prone to I don't think there is such a history unless you count in those better than expected as inaccurate as well. gary

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (124723)	1/12/2001 2:03:22 PM
From: Saturn V	Respond to of 186894

Mary, You have an extremely simplistic view of things particularly with respect to chip business. Ref < many of these analysts don't do extensive research of their own and take company guidance, tweak it, and use the results to promote their own agenda > Agreed that analysts dont do much research. Yes they will take the company guidance, and tweak the numbers based upon the management's past history, and whatever passes for 'research' , i.e listening to rumors. Then some will further change their numbers based upon their own agenda or gut feel. Ref < It is because of their incredibly inaccurate guidance history that I suggest they set guidance to a level they know they can achieve instead of shooting from the hips with some macho bravado type of estimate (without rhyme or reason)that they are prone to. > I do not think that Intel indulges in macho hip shooting. As others have pointed out Intel misses on both sides of the guidance. Chip business is trickier than Microsoft and AOL. Here the ASP ( average selling prices) are plunging, and the exact rate is not exactly predictable, and any surprise by competitors or general macroeconomic conditions will throw revenue projections out of the door. Again the costs are constantly plunging as well. However minor technical glitches can throw out cost of goods calculations. Yes some padding factors are used, but sometimes these pads are too much and sometimes too little. AOL, Microsoft, and CISCO do not have this uncertainity. Setting expectations way too low also has the effect of lowering the stock price as well. After all most people calculate the price on the next years projected earnings, and the past earning no matter how good are ignored. Any chip investor has to come to terms with the extra uncertainity. As I said earlier investing in Silicon Technology takes nerves of steel.

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (124723)	1/12/2001 2:03:55 PM
From: Saturn V	Respond to of 186894

Mary, You have an extremely simplistic view of things particularly with respect to chip business. Ref < many of these analysts don't do extensive research of their own and take company guidance, tweak it, and use the results to promote their own agenda > Agreed that analysts dont do much research. Yes they will take the company guidance, and tweak the numbers based upon the management's past history, and whatever passes for 'research' , i.e listening to rumors. Then some will further change their numbers based upon their own agenda or gut feel. Ref < It is because of their incredibly inaccurate guidance history that I suggest they set guidance to a level they know they can achieve instead of shooting from the hips with some macho bravado type of estimate (without rhyme or reason)that they are prone to. > I do not think that Intel indulges in macho hip shooting. As others have pointed out Intel misses on both sides of the guidance. Chip business is trickier than Microsoft and AOL. Here the ASP ( average selling prices) are plunging, and the exact rate is not exactly predictable, and any surprise by competitors or general macroeconomic conditions will throw revenue projections out of the door. Again the costs are constantly plunging as well. However minor technical glitches can throw out cost of goods calculations. Yes some padding factors are used, but sometimes these pads are too much and sometimes too little. AOL, Microsoft, and CISCO do not have this uncertainity. Setting expectations way too low also has the effect of lowering the stock price as well. After all most people calculate the price on the next years projected earnings, and the past earning no matter how good are ignored. Any chip investor has to come to terms with the extra uncertainity. As I said earlier investing in Silicon Technology does indeed takes nerves of steel.