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To: yard_man who wrote (57392)1/11/2001 10:13:56 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 436258
 
well, thanks for clearing that up. certainly makes sense what you're saying.

incidentally, a prominent optimist/bull on the LW forum, Eric Baranov, argues that the next big step forward technologically should involve an entirely NEW energy source - something along the lines of cold fusion. ending the dependency on fossil fuels. of course he's merely speculating, but IF such an innovation became available, it would certainly bring about a golden economic age.

i mention it because it seems to me to be in the realm of the possible EVENTUALLY. something to keep an occasional eye on. the reason why i believe something WILL come along one day is firstly that human ingenuity has proven simply astounding historically,secondly the pace of technological innovation is steadily accelerating, and thirdly the dependence on fossil fuels MUST end, otherwise we'll encounter a pretty big dilemma pretty soon.

of course if a debt/asset deflation/k winter is coming next, we'll have other things to worry about first.



To: yard_man who wrote (57392)1/12/2001 8:27:03 AM
From: flatsville  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258
 
Good post. I wish you'd comment more on these issues.

I only see a couple of plays for what is going on in CA...Perhaps you could buy the suppliers making the great profits during the tight times -- but that has the risk that the price gets fixed by regulators ...

There is another way...To buy utes mistakenly beaten down by the CA crisis. For example DUK share price has just gotten slaughtered in the past few days. Those who jumped aboard the gravy train late didn't realize what they were buying.

They didn't know that Duke Energy North American [all the merchant plants DUK owns in N. America] contribute just 10% of DUK's overall earnings. Of this, CA is a minor consideration. Per a DUK conference call today, they have sold forward 90% of their CA contract production to non-utes. Essentially they have no exposure to the CA problem on the downside. But, you wouldn't know it from what happened to the stock the past week.

When this nonsense settles down I'm buying more. The share price will come back.