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To: allen menglin chen who wrote (115091)	1/12/2001 1:09:53 AM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 164684

>> Craig, pls read your own posts about AG's surprise cut Oct 15, 1998. U were complaining Greenie's move and find the FED :) << So what's your point? Greenspan changes his tune all the time, am I not allowed to do the same? I still believe that he shouldn't have made the cuts in '98. We probably wouldn't be in the mess we are now if he hadn't! I found it interesting that he was talking irrational exuberance in '96 but then after the market was much higher in '98 and turned down in the fall (like it should have) he flip flopped and panicked, single handedly manipulating the markets higher! That is what messed me up in '98. We had a Fed that warned us of irrational exuberance, so when we were ready to correct the excesses in the fall of '98 he did a total 180 and essentially told everyone it was ok to speculate wildly, I will bail you out! Then to make matters worse he went on a money printing spree that fueled the mania in late 99 early '00. Now that he has created exactly the OPPOSITE of what he warned us about (irrational exuberance), and he has gotten us into a terrible mess, he has an OBLIGATION to attempt to fix the mess that he created. I'll be honest, he probably won't be able to fix it and we will probably slip into a nasty recession much longer than the 6 months people are predicting, but I am betting more on what the markets and politicians will pressure him to do rather than on what I would do. Does that make it clearer for you? I am saying that Greenspan did the wrong thing in '98 and '99 but I expect him to be consistent. If he refused to cut rates in a timely matter this time he would be flip flopping yet again and going back to his irrational exuberance days. A little late to be doing that now wouldn't you say? People that try to argue that the Fed has no business cutting rates just because some tech stocks are down forget that he sure felt like he had the right to interfere in our markets before! He interfered in '96, he interfered in a big way in '98 and '99, all I am saying is he should at least be consistent and interfere once again in '01.