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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Yogi - Paul who wrote (8961)	1/11/2001 11:49:47 PM
From: CPAMarty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Perhaps any slow down in unit growth for hard drives will be more than offset by a better pricing environment after the HDD/MXTR merger. It is in SEG's best interests to end the price war; they will want to show consistent profits when they take the company public again. WDC has no choice, a continuation of the price war will break them. It is possible that new trends will emerge that will lessen the impact of the PC slow down, i.e. hard drives in televisions, etc. There is always the possibility that MXTR will move up the food chain with its NAS products (hope springs eternal) Speaking of trends, here is a link to information on same. davisconsultantsasia.homestead.com

To: Yogi - Paul who wrote (8961)	1/12/2001 4:27:52 PM
From: Sam	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9256

'Ginger' gets picked up by the Washington Post. <<But whatever the case, Dean Kamen comes out of a classic American mold, Internet pioneer Stewart Brand observed yesterday. "Dean is a genuine Gyro Gearloose -- one of the best we have in this generation," he said. "He's in the tradition of Carl Djerassi and the birth control pill, Thomas Edison and the light bulb, Benjamin Franklin and the Franklin stove. And they really did change everything.">> Ginger: The Wheel Thing? Gadget Is Rumored to Be A High-Tech Unicycle Secretive inventor Dean Kamen. A sketch accompanying a World Intellectual Property Organization application for a personal mobility vehicle patent might (or might not) be the elusive Ginger. (AP) _____Related Content_____ • Harvard Press's Expensive Secret (The Washington Post, Jan. 11, 2001) E-Mail This Article Printer-Friendly Version By Joel Garreau Washington Post Staff Writer Friday, January 12, 2001; Page C01 What could it be? Respected inventor Dean Kamen of Manchester, N.H., we are told, has come up with a world-moving invention that will be "an alternative to products that are dirty, expensive, sometimes dangerous, and often frustrating, especially for people in the cities." Has the man reinvented sex? Harvard Business School Press is paying a quarter of a million dollars for a book on the subject. According to the book proposal, Amazon.com CEO Jeff Bezos says it's a "product so revolutionary, you'll have no problem selling it." Apple Computer CEO Steve Jobs says it will change the ways cities are designed. Venture capitalist John Doerr has invested millions in it. The code name for this product is "Ginger." What could it be? If anybody actually knows, they're not talking. But the digerati of Silicon Valley who know Kamen well were convinced they had the answer yesterday. Ginger, they claimed, is a wearable car. Speculation and even drawings of a purported patent application flew feverishly around the Web. The drawing looks like a pogo stick with a single wheel under it that you can't push over, no matter how hard you try. "Sort of 'B.C.' meets George Jetson in the form of a Razor on steroids," as Paul Saffo of the Institute for the Future put it yesterday. If Ginger is indeed a kind of 60 mph wheeled witch's broom, there would be a sort of outlandish logic to it, given the inventor's background. Kamen, who according to Wired magazine holds a Guinness record for the longest interrupted span of time spent dressed in denim, has a history of socially motivated invention. A physicist and engineer, he holds more than 100 patents, several for quality-of-life devices, including the portable dialysis machine. His latest invention was the Independence 3000 IBot Transporter -- a sort of intelligent wheelchair. It includes onboard sensors, gyroscopes and computers that allow the device to place its wheels almost like feet so as to climb stairs and travel over curbs and rocks. He demonstrated it in July in the Senate and at Vice President Gore's residence. Those smart miniaturized gyroscopes would presumably be at the heart of a Ginger machine that could whisk people magically through cities at high speed while never being a parking problem. (Maybe when you step off Ginger, it will fold itself up into something the size of a briefcase? Maybe you can then instruct the briefcase to follow you like a puppy?) Sure, there will be bugs in the system. Literally. In your teeth and in your hair, if you are scooting along at high speed. But that could be solved by a sophisticated designer encasing you and your Ginger in an Armani egglike shell. And replacing the automobile will not be easy. Where would you put your CD player on Ginger? Where would you put your beer? What about the teenage market -- people who see transportation devices as a means to make out? These are all difficulties that need to be ironed out. (Two teenagers getting to know each other standing up at high speed could actually be pretty awesome.) But whatever the case, Dean Kamen comes out of a classic American mold, Internet pioneer Stewart Brand observed yesterday. "Dean is a genuine Gyro Gearloose -- one of the best we have in this generation," he said. "He's in the tradition of Carl Djerassi and the birth control pill, Thomas Edison and the light bulb, Benjamin Franklin and the Franklin stove. And they really did change everything." Whatever Ginger turns out to be, Brand, like other members of the Silicon Valley elite yesterday, was willing to believe that Kamen was onto something. "I don't think it's cold fusion," he said. "If Steve and Jeff were given access, their judgment is pretty good about what's new, true and important." "On the other hand," he said, laughing, "it might be early investors' hype." © 2001 The Washington Post Company

To: Yogi - Paul who wrote (8961)	1/13/2001 9:28:33 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9256

Hi Yogi; <<. What is your catalyst for recovery in the pc sector?>> Sorry for the delayed response. I actually responded from my hotel in Singapore on Friday but for some reason I see that it never got posted so I must have missed a step in the process. I think final acceptance of Windows 2000 will help. In general, however, I do not think we will see the growth rate in the twenties again except in certain sectors. Asia, for example, should enjoy 24 - 28 % unit growth rate for the next few years as long as we don't see a slip back into the R word. At this point I have convinced myself we won't but I could be just whistling past the graveyard. Morgan Stanley etc.etc. had the clip below to say about PC's last Thursday. Thanks for the Dubya/Bonzo pics. Many have speculated that he isn't going to get the honeymoon most new hires get and the effort someone put in to create that montage supports that theory. <G> When we ponder the PC industry and the impact on drives we have to consider that there is an emerging non PC market for disk drives. While this is very interesting considering the DD industry's absolute slavish dependence on the Wintel model, it is going to be a while before we see some relief IMO. The emergence of set-top boxes, games, and, most importantly, PVRs, is forecasted to be only about 18 million of the 350 million drives shipped in 2003. The netcentric, or enterprise storage market is considerably more interesting however. The only problem is that the DD makers seem intent on giving the drives away to that sector. Best, Stitch From a Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Investment Report: PC Summary: PC sentiment continued to deteriorate in CQ4 as Dell, Gateway, Apple, Intel, Compaq, and Microsoft all guided estimates lower during the quarter. The big theme that we heard was a weaker-than expected U.S. consumer & SMB market environment, and a lack of a meaningful sales pickup in the historically strong end-of-year holiday period. European sales seemed to be inline with expectations and Asia remained the fastest growing region. Now, recession fears are weighing on the outlook for the corporate market. All in, the key in PCs is to remember that this is an industry that is no longer experiencing accelerating growth rates. Therefore there will always be issues like the ones the group is experiencing today. On December 19, we revised our unit estimates for CQ4 down to 8% Q/Q growth from 14% (see our Cross Checks report dated December 19). CQ4 should prove to be the most muted Q4 seasonally in many years; in the last 5 years, sequential unit growth for CQ4s have generally been between 16-25%. In sum, we see the PC market as going through a transition period in C1H:01. We now look for the PC market to grow 12% in units and 1% in revenue in C2001, versus 13% and 16% respectively in C2000. Valuations for PC shares are trending back towards historic trading ranges from the early 90's and may start to present trading opportunities (see our note: When Will PC Stocks Settle: Disk Drives May Offer a Clue, dated January 11). We continue to recommend Compaq and Gateway, but note that it would not be surprising to see Compaq reduce guidance for its C2001 outlook during Q4 earnings season, as Gateway has already done.