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To: wily who wrote (64228)	1/12/2001 9:23:12 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 93625

wily, right now, I am calculating an average royalties rate of only.9%, assuming that the whole DRAM market in the October quarter was about $7.5 Billions. I think it is on the low side and there must be factors that prevent us from coming up with the real royalties number. Since pricing for DRAM was even weaker for the December quarter (the one on which Royalties will be reported in April), yes you should expect the next quarter to be weaker.. Longer term, however, I think that you will have to include non DRAM royalties to start and increase, and hopefully, the low number (.9%) is just a glitch in my assumptions. The way I arrive at my "future earnings" is by assuming that eventually all DRAMs will be royalties bearing and that within the next three years that market will reach some $60 Billions (maybe too optimistic?) and that the average royalties rate will be 1%. Then I assume that that this will be only some 65% of total revenues (Royalties on controllers other interfaces and possibly some logic and telecom devices will account for 35%), as per Tate's pronouncements last year. That gets me roughly, after taxes to $6/share, on which a 25 PE yields $150. Zeev