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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (40785)	1/12/2001 1:31:04 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

By L3_Aka_L3 on Thursday, January 11, 2001 - 11:53 pm: Edit I don't know what is going wrong lately but it seems I have no time for anything anymore thus my reduced posting as of late and my absence from SI. I only looked at a few charts other than those posted here. ( BTW - I will be deleting some charts and adding some this weekend. As the DJs would say, The request lines are open. Candidates I am considering are NTAP, BRCM, BRCD, AMCC etc.) My impression of today was pretty good this morning then as the afternoon wore on, it just got plain silly. I can't think of a better word to describe it than "Silly" either. GTW up 15% then after the close of course it warned. CREE, FLEX, AGIL all up near 15-20%. My SFA even has climbed 50% in the last week. No one wanted it at 30 but now they can't get enough of it at 50? This IS a bear bounce and it WILL fail.... Eventually. -ggg- I am still long but it has more to do with the broker fees required to unhedge my positions via buying my calls back than it does with my outlook. I can take a hit for a few points and still come out better than if I close out all my positions now. That is the strange side of hedging. Of course ARBA missed earnings but then gave a pep talk rally about how trees grow to the sky and they see the future better than now. ( Helloooo, haven't they heard about the slowdown and recession???) The dumbed down J6Ps ( Joe/Jane Six Packs for our new readers) bought the story though and after trading down 4 points on island for a while it bounced back. GTW reported early and missed bad. Gave a bleak outlook for 3% growth and announced they are laying off. HWP also warned and will not get the low 40s in earnings shooting now for 35-40 cents. RMBS missed by a couple also so there is no joy in Semiville to go along with the moronic rises in KLAC today either since if the customer doesn't have money, they can't buy fancy equipment. Futures are positive although I have no idea why. Hey I will take all the up they want to give as it makes the shorts pay so much better when reality hits. I just wish my longs would hurry up and get called away so I could have cash to leg into my shorts. On economic news, this mornings initial claims report came in very low. Market expected about 375 and got 345. Again, the employment picture isn't helping those that think the Fed will lower another 50 in a couple weeks. This is inflationary, not good. The BLS lied to us some more about cheaper import prices on Oil. Why don't they at least pick something not so obvious that we might believe. I mean come on, who the heck isn't watching oil futures these days. We KNOW it is going up again, they need to lie about twist ties or porcelain dolls or something, not something we know is a lie. Tomorrow we get the PPI report and retail sales. Expectations are for a DROP of .1 in the PPI and a gain of .1 in the core price. Retail sales are supposed to be lower by 5% on weak auto sales but up .1% without them. Germany also decides on rate cuts tomorrow but I doubt they will. The Deutsche Mark is strong for a reason and they aren't going to weaken it just to make us happy. Our dollar started falling again today and Palladium jumped another 34 bucks. If it keeps climbing like this, they are going to have to add it to the NASDAQ. -gggg- I have an over sold on the XAL Airline index so start tightening up stops although DAL announced they will take a big charge on earnings for bad investments. AXP also is bouncing and should attack my lower tine soon. With the utilities tanking, things don't look great but never under-estimate an over sold market. We could still go higher so be careful. Next week the real earnings start in earnest and I don't want to hold anything overnight. A miss by anyone of the big boys could crash us now that we are up off our lows and can build steam on the drops. Most of the new highs yesterday were in Bond Funds, NOT Stocks! Also many point to the short term movements of the indexes and larger stocks, when I look at them, I see bearish wedges popping up or else bear flags. I was bullish last week but that bullishness is now fading fast. I wanted 3K on the NASDAQ or at least 2800 but it is going to be tough going from here. Stay on guard. Next week we have a shortened week, options expiration, an inauguration and all kinds of other events like earnings etc. It is going to be whipsaw city for the next week or so. Play the ripples and don't leave things unattended too long. A LOT of calls were opened at my lower 55 range today which moves MAX PAIN down significantly. The range is now between 52 floor and 65 on the QQQ. EDIT - I didn't mean to say ARBA missed. They beat expectations but were down 4 points until the CC. Good Luck, Lee

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (40785)	1/12/2001 3:01:36 AM
From: JD	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

A good read, but I do not think they are correct to assume a deflationary result from the end of the bubble, nor are they correct in assuming our gov is running a surplus: "It is my contention that only the net creditor nation can really have this kind of deflation, particularly under a free-floating exchange-rate system, hence Japan's recent experience. The primary reason being that it is in the debtor nation's interest to inflate its way out of debt. A spoiled debtor nation will never tolerate the deflationary burden of its debt.".....Ludig von Mises From the following Fed Gov report: "Excluding Social Security and the Postal Service, there was a small on-budget surplus of $0.7 billion" This is in the 'fine print', right under the headline that claims 124+ billion surplus. Can you imagine what would happen to a Fortune 500 CEO if he had the accountants 'borrow' inflows destined for the employee retirement account in order to show positive earnings and cash flow??? He would be facing criminal charges.....but not our President...: fms.treas.gov (needs acrobat reader) The true bubble is the credit bubble, last Spring's NAS bubble was just one of the symptoms..... More from Mises and the unwinding of credit bubbles: "The course of a progressing inflation is this: At the beginning the inflow of additional money makes the prices of some commodities and services rise; other prices rise later. The price rise affects the various commodities and services, as has been shown, at different dates and to a different extent." "This first stage of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it lasts, the prices of many goods and services are not yet adjusted to the altered money relation. There are still people in the country who have not yet become aware of the fact that they are confronted with a price revolution which will finally result in a considerable rise of all prices, although the extent of this rise will not be the same in the various commodities and services. These people still believe that prices one day will drop. Waiting for this day, they restrict their purchases and concomitantly increase their cash holdings. As long as such ideas are still held by public opinion, it is not yet too late for the government to abandon its inflationary policy." "But then finally the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against "real" goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap pater. Nobody wants to give away anything against them." "It was this that happened with the Continental currency in America in 1781, with the French mandats territoriaux in 1796, and with the German Mark in 1923. It happened with the dollar in 1973. It will happen again whenever the same conditions appear. If a thing has to be used as a medium of exchange, public opinion must not believe that the quantity of this thing will increase beyond all bounds. Inflation is a policy that cannot last." "Inflating its way out of debt" is a nice way of saying balancing the books by reducing the value of the general public's financial assets to offset the malinvestments that were the result of the credit bubble allowed to bloom by Greenspan & Co....... Jerry