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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (64255)	1/12/2001 12:05:15 PM
From: wily	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

OK, zeev, your method is better in that it leaves out ASPs and goes directly by DRAM market size. Incorporating this and the added products: 4X for entire year 2X for market size (conservatively estimating 2001 at $30B) 2.5X for new licensees 1.3X for richer royalty mix 1.5X for new revenue sources (your 65% number) The only change here from my scenario is the last one. Also, notice that mine includes a 30% allowance for richer royalty mix that yours does not include. The net result is that my number would increase from $3.75 to $5.60. But removing my 30% factor for richer royalties would bring it down to $4.30 Further difference is that you give Rambus a 25 PE where I give it a 15 PE. For estimating present royalty rate, you would have to take into account how much of the present royalties are for chipsets (say 1/3?) and how much are retroactive payments (1/8?). Taking these into account, and assuming $30B market in 2000, would give a rate of Total royalties $80MM chipset royalties $24MM retroactive $10MM present DRAM rate 46/30000 = 0.153% or the number including chipsets would be 70/30000 = 0.23%