ahhaha, I have been questioning, my posting myself. But as I said before, I was just trying to keep the sight alive durring a rough time in the mkt., when others were posting damagingly cynical remarks, to benefit their shorting activities.
I see this type of shorting, enhanced with damaging commentary as different from hedging, or directional trading, long or short that traders do, with no chat room piking.
I am old enough that I don't care if I make a fool out of myself, I just did my best to share, what I thought and what I was doing, durring this time.
You seem to be be far more informed than myself regarding Avanex.
I found your post to be very informative, and it had the effect of greatly increasing my confidence in the strength of Avanex's business.
I wish more people like yourself would post.
Also thankyou for the conference call archive link, I might have it, but thanks anyway .
I will take the hint, and try to focus more on documentable facts, and less projections, or seat of the pants trading commentary, in the future.
Having said the above though, I would like for old time sake, to say something about the nature of yesterdays trading in the mkt, because I think it is key.
In my opponion the big players early on played an incredible shell game with the futures. They kept taking the mkt up and down, even experienced traders, on a site I go to, were confused. I was proud of myself, because I didn't get sucked in, by the false starts early on. When new lows for the day were being made though, I missed the boat because I was looking for a price lower than 51 1/2 and when it came, the mkt moved too fast for my gear. So after hesitating I stood back, and didn't enter the middle of the ride from 51+ to 57+.
What was pertinent about this activity, was the buying in the futures and stocks at the top of the ride. Seeing this I threw in the towel, and bought at 57 3/16, almost at the high. I have to say the end of the ride felt very real and strong, even though it didn't go on to make more highs. The strength in the market was some thing I haven't experienced in a long time, so much so, that I chose to swing the position and not take a small loss and trade out at 56 3/4 or so.
I think the incredible, early morning shell game, may be due to the mkt's concern about opening the flood gates, until earnings, settles remaining questions of valuation, and the mkt is doing its best to keep irrational exhuberance at bay, in deference to uncle Greeny.
Last point, whats interesting about all this, is that Avanex gets steady buying even when the futures pull back a little. This tells me that Avanex has the steady eddie support of strong hand buyers.
In closing, ahhaha, is it your sense that Avanex probably gets some Mux orders, at least, out of Hatachi's contract with Globalcrossing.
Also no offence, but I have been working my but off. By trading 1/2 my position only on the long side, I have recovered all my looses, paid lots off bills, paid for a the first vacation my wife and I have gone on, with out the kids, and helped keep things going in the small family enterprise.
I have been conerned about the board lately, but I imagine it will pick up at earnings, and as the stock recovers.
Also I know many people don't like to make comments about about trading, and the like, as they feel that inexperienced investors, may not understand, how to properly weight brain storming comments, that have to do with trading. I tried to tell realte my activities in a way that would be helpfull to those with less experience.
As a final comment, knowing that the mkt really wants to own Avanex, one can learn alot about the mkt's head fakes if you just keep your eye on the Avanex ball.
Anyway I wish you would post more ahhaha, I learned alot, thankyou. shaw |
