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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (872)	1/12/2001 9:02:32 PM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 12411

I don't believe in any cycles of this sort with a fixed length. The World is stochastic not deterministic. The Kondratieff Cycle is very much a real world phenomenon. The markets just reflect that. A cycle end should be years of recession and the 30s and 70s-80s are the only periods that could qualify. A lot of people were looking for the cycle end in 1990 on the basis of 57 years or so. But they turned out be wrong the bottom had passed. 1987 was just a blip in the bull market. People were comparing it to the 1929 high (I was an undergrad studying economics/geography then). As the pace of technical change picks up I expect the Kondratieff Cycle to shorten. Just look at the rate of penetration/diffusion of new technologies now compared with in the early part of the 20th century. A lot of mainstream economists don't believe in Kondratieff cycles anyway. They think it is a Marxist conspiracy <g>. David