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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems-Trading Strong Earnings Growth and Momentum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marilyn who wrote (1651)	1/13/2001 12:20:31 PM
From: Jenna	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 6445

Go Short, Traders! We speak a great deal about reversal periods for optimal trading profits. Changes in the reversal period should coincide with a corresponding change of the trade from the long to the short side or vice versa. That is the best way to profit from bottoms or tops of the intraday trend. You can profit daily on the long and on the short side. Why just close your position? Think why are you closing the position in the first place? Because the trend has changed, so just go with the new trend. The chart below depicts the CFLO chart as it fails to hold its 9:30 to 9:50 high and reverses at the line. Do you just give up and wait for another chance to go long? No you plot a course IMMEDIATELY ON THE SHORT SIDE with a probability of a hold either through 10:25 to 10:35 reversal period or (according to the S&P Futures and Nasdaq Futures & TICK & TRIN readings) whenever the downtrend ends. INTRADAY CHART FOR CFLO marketgems.com In this 5 minute chart of the Nasdaq 100 futures contracts you can easily see the reversal from a gap up and exhaustion move up until it reversals. At this point with confirmation from an oscillator (schocastics) and trend indicator (DMI Directional movement indicator) you see a more substantial reinforcement of the trend change. Intraday Chart of the Nasdaq 100 Futures contracts marketgems.com marketgems.com Reverse! Close Position and set a buy stop above the area support level 2) above above a spike low 3)above the 20 period moving average CMRC was a short through the final drop from intraday support, dropping BELOW the 20 period moving average and final support (yellow line) but the reversal back up came about 1;30 towards the end of the doldrums and the beginning of the second most reversal period :the 2:00 reversal period. INTRADAY CHART FOR CMRC marketgems.com I this chart of OPWV below you can see a very strong gap up and break away beyond the 9:50 period as OPWV soars but every soaring (or falling) stock hits a spike high setting up new opportunities in the opposite direction. The ultimate end to this move, OPWV doubled in only 6 sessions. Look for "stop" signs like this for possibly closing your position and going short on a confirmation that this uptrend indeed has ended for now. In the chart that big range expansion bearish bar was the clincher. INTRADAY CHART FOR OPWV marketgems.com For the most part when the nq's and sp's continue to move high by 1:45 to 2:00 you might have a retest of the previous highs. See the chart of NUFO below, what you got was a complete breakdown and and failure of 20 period moving average to act as support. Anticipating an increase of volatility towards the 2:00 time period could have gotten you into a good shorting opportunity which lasted beyond the drop from the 200 period moving average. INTRADAY CHART FOR NUFO marketgems.com

To: marilyn who wrote (1651)	1/13/2001 1:30:20 PM
From: lee kramer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 6445

DAYTRADING: The Highs and the Woes 1/13/01 I needed courage to see Doc Kronkite this week. So I dragged Dortmunder with me. He didn't want to go of course. "I cannot abide that chap," said Dortmunder in his clipped British accent. "He is a a rogue, a rapscallion, a mountbank." "But Dortmunder!" I cried, "He's my shrink. I need him. Please come with me." Dortmunder snorted a few "harumphs", but stout fellow that he is, the little guy donned his greatcoat, his bowler and his bumbershoot and said "I shall accompany you, but I'll drive. You are in frightful condition." I could not disagree. I was shaking, I was sweating. I was a wreck. I flew into Doc Kronkite's office, jumped on his lumpy couch and began sobbing. "What is it this week?" asked the doc. "Another bout of insomnia? A bad trading week? Another case of premature congratulations in the conjugal bed? Talk on me already." "It's the dream." I said, sniffling. "It's good you came to me. I know all about dreams. I'm a specialist you know." "I know doc." "Is it the dream where you're pitching for the Red Sox in the World Series in front of 35,000 people and you're naked?" he asked. "No doc." "Is it the dream where you're falling from a great height and when you land on your back you wake up with a bounce?" "No doc, not that one." "Is it the one where Regis Philbin is chasing you screaming for a Final Answer and you're running in cement galoshes through a field of molasses?" "No doc." "Mmm. That's all the dreams Freud analyzed. We got a real problem here" he said pulling at his hair. "So tell me what you dreamed." "Doc, it was awful. Every night the same dream. Suzy has to shake me awake. I'm in a cold sweat and my heart is ploppitating. You gotta help me doc. I've been up for forty-eight hours straight doc. I'm afraid to go to sleep. And I'm running out of coffee." "The dream. Tell on me already the dream." "Indeed." said Dortmunder, "Relate the dream so I can get back to my scones and charts." "Well doc, I dream that I'm no longer a day trader. I'm a...I'm a...Doc, I can't say it. It's too terrible." "You are among friends" said Kronkite, giving Dortmunder a condescending and extremely dirty look. "You can say anything. I promise it shall not leave this room." I took a deep breath. "Doc, I dreamed I was an INVESTOR! It was terrifying." Doc Kronkite snorted. Dortmunder, always in control, always unruffled as the British tend to be shook me to the core when I saw a look of shock on his always stoic countenance. "Details. Details I need of your dream. Leave nothing out." said Kronkite. "I dream that I toss all my charts into the wood burning stove. I dream that I close my on-line daytrading accounts and open accounts with Merrill Lynch, Prudential and A.G. Edwards. Then I'm on the phone talking to Joe Battipaglia and Larry Kudlow. They're all giving me stocks to buy. And I'm buying everything. Doc, it was dreadful." "Continue." "It gets worse. I begin to follow the analysts. Their upgrades and downgrades. I've got 500 shares of AMAZON in the dream that I bought at 110. But I dump 'em all at 15 when I hear an analyst downgrade the stock from a 'Strong Buy' to an 'Accumulate.' Then I begin subscribing to dozens of newsletters and brokerage reports." I began sobbing again. When I was able to compose myself I continued. "Then I began analyzing income statements, balance sheets and whisper numbers. And earnings. And price earnings ratios. I bought stock after stock. But they kept dropping. And then I did a terrible thing doc. It was so dreadful I can't tell you doc." "You can tell me. You MUST tell me. Dream analysis is my specialty. How can I cure you without full disclosure?" "You think you can cure me doc?" I asked with a glimmer of hope. "Of course I can cure you. You don't get to the top of the shrinking game without curing." Dortmunder snorted again. "Well doc" I began "This is where it really gets frightening. Doc, In my dream I turned on CNBC. Listened to everything, began taking notes even. I bought every rumor that Maria passed along. If Tom Costello was frowning I sold. If Bob Pisani was smiling I bought. When Mark reported that the futures were up in pre-market trading I was happy and bought. If they were down I was worried. And doc, I was always fully invested, carried everything over every night. I was so worried about how they'd open the next day that even in my dream I couldn't sleep. Doc, it was frightful." "The cure is simple" said Kronkite. "You're mind is blocked. The only way to unblock a blocked mind is to unblock the body. A high-colonic twice a day, an enema three times a day and gallons of prune juice you should take. That will fix you up. I devoted an entire chapter to dreams and unblocking in my best-seller "The Idiot: Every Village Has One," chapter 92, a bargain at only $59.95. Read it." Dortmunder laughed. Said, "I'll provide you an alternative solution in exchange for six months of scones flown in from Bermuda." "Tell me!" I pleaded. "Do we have a deal?" "Yes, yes of course!" I cried. "Last year was a terrible year for the NASDAQ. How did you fare?" "I did well." I said. "How?" "I traded mostly on the short side." "Did you use charts? End each day fully in cash? Eschew analysts upgrades, downgrades? Refrain from reading brokerage reports? Keep the mute button on with CNBC?" "Yes, yes, yes, yes, and yes." "And you traded successfully?" "Yes." "Consider that. Consider too that the safest, most conservative, and paradoxically, the most profitable place to be in a down market is the short side. Repeat that several times a day for three days. I suspect that your problems will melt as rapidly as the internet and tech stocks." "Dortmunder. You're a genius!" "Quite," said the little guy."And doc?" I said, feeling magnanimous now that hope was glimmering, "You've been a great help too. Thanks, see you next week." Lee Kramer