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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: prophet_often who wrote (45491)	1/13/2001 12:07:39 AM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Let's all not forget the risk involved. These rat dogs which have just doubled might be a little toppy. Reason being if you look at their balance sheets sure some of them have lots of cash or teensy market caps but some of them also have no clue how to make money and lost huge amounts last year. So they have to fire everyone and shut down which leaves them with cash, debts and little revenues. Some will get taken over or merge or survive. Others will go out of business. At least pick the survivors which actually have sizeable deals, customers and clients who pay cash. Also it's hard to know the inside scoop. They don't publicize bad news until they have to. for instance I know the owners of KLOC which was a hotty last year trading up to 25 or so. Now it's at 1/4. Now that may seem cheap but they have bank debts and not enough cash to pay them. So the company might actually have a negative value even if liquidated. So watch out. Maybe better to look to get INTC at the bottom or something like that. Whatever fine stock is getting the negativity shaft and attracting shorters, then let it play down a few days. No need to move until you feel the bottom, like I did with ERICY, CMGI the other day. Or buy an AAPL with 4 bill in cash and a 5 bill market cap. Eventually you know you're going to make a profit there. Just my two cents. I may buy a few rat dogs but only on dips or if I'm pretty damn sure they're survivors. Never be the last guy in following the lemmings. Better to be the first one to buy a good stock after it's just been unfairly slammed. YHOO is another I'd like to get, though cheaper than it's selling now. Ditto MSFT and AOL. The safest stock on my board is VZ. At 13 PE the #1 wireless company in the the US is a bargain. I pay those guys 3 bills a month.

To: prophet_often who wrote (45491)	1/13/2001 3:58:31 AM
From: Bobber1234	Respond to of 57584

RE: Expected Corporate Earnings Reports 15 January - 19 January 2001 Be sure to scroll down...... e-analytics.com

To: prophet_often who wrote (45491)	1/13/2001 9:25:21 AM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

prophet often: excellent post. Let me take your post one step further and summarize an important research note by Jonathan Joseph, the analyst at Salomon Smith Barney who predicted the carnage in the chip sector months before it occurred. Say what you will about analysts, this guy made a very unpopular and controversial call last summer and has earned my respect. He reports that we haven't seen the bottom yet for the chip companies and that Q1 and Q2 will be dismal for them. Based on current valuations, he thinks they can still drop 25-30% below current levels based on their current and historical valuations when they report earnings. He does not think the inventory problem will resolve itself until October or November of this year and would advise not investing in this sector until late summer/early fall in anticipation of a bounce. My point and advice to this thread: make certain you are not holding these stocks when they report earnings for both Q1 and Q2. They may be great trading vehicles (and many are up 25-35% over the past week or two), but know when to fold 'em! The chip stocks he favors most are: ADI, IDTI, AMCC, and PMCS. When it is time to buy these later this year, these are the ones you want.