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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Short Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: prophet_often who wrote (20)	1/14/2001 2:00:27 PM
From: tuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 897

prophet_often, Thanks for your suggestion of IMNX and a few reasons. The other interesting thing about IMNX as a short candidate is that the lock-up for its $3.2 billion secondary in October expired after 90 days. Right about now. AHP needs to keep 35% ownership to retain at least two directorships and be able to influence the BOD of IMNX. It currently holds somewhat more than 41%, meaning it could sell roughly 60 million shares again without hitting that figure. However, that should be reduced, as dilution from other sources would require AHP to sell fewer shares to keep this interest. 30 million is probably more like what they might want to sell, and maintain a comfortable cushion for a while, IMO. That is speculation, of course. I have no idea what AHP's strategy is in terms of its IMNX relationship going forward a few years. But the overhang is out there. And the lock-up also applied to some of the management team, who do not have the kind ownership concerns that AHP does. Much smaller amounts, though. I've also been looking at lock-ups for biotech IPO's for the next three months (beyond April, little is happening since the window pretty much closed in October). And I have to concur with Peter. Most all of these companies' charts have been on a 45 degree downslope since last fall. There ain't much left to short on that basis. One can briefly deceive oneself with the Yahoo! profiles into believing that a few are short of cash. But those are the late ones whose proceeds from the IPOs haven't shown up in the cash column as of the 3rd quarter 10-Qs. So EDEN, for example, still has a large chunk of the ~$80 million it raised, despite the Yahoo! figure of roughly 1/70th of that. It still has to perform 4 follow-up studies to convince the EPA that their product is safe. However, my intent in starting this thread was to have some thorough research done by the time biotech seasonality is peaking, so we're a couple of months ahead of the curve. If some of these stocks with huge lock-up expirations manage to recover somewhat by then, they could well be promising shorts again. IMO, the most promising, based mostly on the % of shares released and the company not saying that it will beat expectations (As BDAL and CRL have stated, for example), and a price that isn't currently rock bottom, are: AMEV, GNSC, AMMD, DYAX, CIPH, and EDEN. Maybe DCGN and GMNI, which seem to be competitors, and are coming out of lock-up at close to the same time and % of shares released. Have not done deep DD on any of the above, CRL and BDAL excepted. Of the two, I would expect BDAL to be a bit weaker should it spike back into the 20s or 30s. It is definitely the more volatile of the two. I was a virtual buyer between $11 and ~$27 for the Trickle Portfolio. I've done a little DD on CIPH, and besides a 95% lock-up release, they are involoved in litigation pertaining to their core technologies. And it is a hard battle to handicap at the moment. Cheers, Tuck