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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Condor who wrote (45512)	1/13/2001 10:07:37 PM
From: American Spirit	Respond to of 57584

Rate cuts. I believe we could go down 2% by spring. (Ooops just had a little earthquake here in LA) Basically if the markket tanks again Greenspan will move more aggressively. Inflation is a non-issue. There is no inflation when you average it all out. Oil prices will stay around 25-28. The economy will slow down to the aftermath of the dot.bomb shakeout. Fewer luxury goods will move. There will be mass consolidation. But every notch we go down the Fed will lower a notch so try and get us to a soft landing. Remember most if not all of this is priced in already. Therefore we should move within a trading range. Profit-taking and bargain-hunting will be the name of the game in terms of moving the market. Maybe the range is 2300-3300 something like that. Rocking between short-term climaxes in fear and greed. I don't see us testing tech lows except perhaps in chip stocks and maybe some of the pricier PE leaders like YHOO, SUNW, CSCO. But those are also the wealthiest strongest companies so they will always snap back. I'd say therefore that this will be a trader's market and we swing back and forth for awhile (like I hope this earthquake doesn't start doing). PROFIT OFTEN will be a very good motto going forward. I don't short I just sell so I plan to be buying on big dips and selling on sharp spurts. I'll take my 10-20% scalps any time. Get too greedy and you'll just lose. And I don't mind buying on those dips because almost always I'll know that I can get my money back. Risky business buying into the momentum these days. Or shorting into too much negativity. In and out. Or else just low position buys and sock 'em away. What am I saying? Just don't trade this market unless you're of a balanced mind, not deluding yourself with too strong a position one way or another and unless you can keep watch of your flocks. That is stocks. I'm not going to make any picks now, just going to wait and see what opportunities (gifts) are offered. When things look the worst I'll have faith in the Fed. They simply cannot afford to allow this market to crash. Since there is no inflation they have plenty of leeway to cut-cut-cut. The profits that are to be made will be in taking advantages of the gaps, lag periods and inefficiencies. Sometimes you might have only an hour or two to grab the price you want or sell or short. Going to get pretty crazy until this economy settles again. But I do no buy into doomsday scenarios. No way INTC is going to $15 for instance. Not even close. And the likes of AAPL and LU are still great buys here. Those which have been hit hardest will be most immune.