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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (8972)	1/14/2001 2:29:30 PM
From: Yogi - Paul	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Sarmand, << It was insane to be positive on the dot.coms in Feb 00, and it would be more insane to bet against the storage sector (including disk drives) now. >> Historically true but in Feb '00 the market believed .com was the second coming. March came and reality struck. I'm certainly not betting against the storage sector right now but I have seriously slashed my exposure to EMC and have not added to a minor position in Veritas since mid-2000. Maxtor, WDC, RDRT, HTCH gotta show me something before I do anything more than trade them. The fact that Seagate is private (for now) certainly doesn't mean that their production capacity has been curtailed. I would like to hear from someone positive on the future performance of the disk drive stocks that is not basing their optimism purely on inevitability (Greater unit demand = higher stock price). Then again, I'm so negative I sold 90% of my GE last quarter, Paul

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (8972)	1/14/2001 7:30:42 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9256

Sarmad, <<And now with seagate gone private, the supply will only get tighter, while demand continues to increase.>> I have to question your statement (above) because I see exactly the opposite developing. Seagate, cut loose from the fetters of SEC rules, is like cutting loose a hungry junkyard dog at a junior league tea party IMHO. And I can personally vouch that their production capacity and capability is as lean and mean as ever. Privatization doesn't have anything to do with with tighter supplies. To suggest so is a non sequitur. Its interesting, so far we have had only one warning from the DD group, and that was Quantum's December warning of tight supplies (likely an impact of the production problems at TDK/SAE). Nevertheless we know inventories in PC land have been growing. With PCs still accounting for most of the disk drives shipped how soon do you think we will see warnings from the disk drive makers? Or are they just so beat up that it doesn't matter anymore. I have to agree with the Morgan Stanley Dean Witter comments that more consolidation in the industry is still required and likely inevitable. Best, Stitch