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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KevinMark who wrote (66852)	1/15/2001 2:09:05 PM
From: FR1	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 99985

KM, I liked your comment and agree with most of it. But I can't be a chart man. Looking at charts from a long-term perspective, the monthly fast stochastic... I never met a chart man that was right twice in a row. Basically, the FED rules the market. They are in the part of their cycle where they get out of the market and allow us to resume normal speed. Historically, it is after the 2nd lowering that the market takes off. Most people feel a run to 3000+ is realistic. Yes, you are right that there will be a sell off in late March and early April. There always is! Tax time + earnings month almost demands it. However, in order for the sell off to be enormous and test new lows (800+ drop) there has to be a reason. We will see how things are but currently it appears there will be no fundamental reason for a massive sell off. Even taking in to account taxes. Most people lost money last year. They don't need to sell stocks to raise tax cash. I see a fairly strong recovery because we have a driving force - the Internet build out. A run to at least 3000 and a normal (possibly even mild) April sell off just before the April super Tuesday reports.