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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: westpacific who wrote (1760)	1/15/2001 5:50:33 PM
From: Stcgg	Respond to of 74559

Westpacific.. "Are we in a bear market rally in technology or has the bottom been put in place for 2001?" I believe, also according to Elliott Wave Int'l, that there is one more sub-wave 5 down now due that should make a lower low prior to a multi-month rally.. This would complete the larger wave 3 down, with another decline due in the Spring/Summer time-frame which would complete a larger 5th wave down and could signal the end of the bear market.. >><<

To: westpacific who wrote (1760)	1/16/2001 12:41:36 AM
From: Rolla Coasta	Respond to of 74559

This all leads to a tricky trading environment, I still feel we could have a oneday news event that will shock the markets this year. Thus is your fully invested that could lead to some major pain. I would think that oneday news event would be a sudden UFO visit over the White House or an asteroid hitting the earth. Just kidding ... If the FED doesn't cut rate anymore, that could be it. Nonetheless, the technology stock is here to stay. Euro is so risky with so much political uncertainty. The oversupply issue in semiconductor really doesn't convince me why the cycle is peaking. Take a look at the Playstation supply ... component shortages everywhere. I guess people and traders are waiting for the 200mm to 300mm silicon wafer transition to finish and sort out the supply shortage mess, before they pump their major money into that sector. Just a thought. Q Q

To: westpacific who wrote (1760)	1/18/2001 8:04:56 PM
From: tradermike_1999	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

After the close Microsoft reported and met analyst expectations, but warned that because of the economic slowdown and drop in computer sales that it would not be able to make the earnings this quarter that people expect. You would think that this would be bad news for the market, but Microsoft is trading up now in afterhours following the announcement. The earnings that have come out so far this year have made a barrel of rotten apples taste good. Investors apparently don't care as long as they look ripe. It doesn't matter what is inside. They think that someone down the road will pay a higher price for them. At the moment everyone seems to believe that the market has bottomed and greed has replaced fear. People are ignoring fundamentals and buying on hype. When everyone is bullish it is time to be cautious, but it is clear by today's action that the downtrend is over. This is the time to buy breakouts and look for investment candidates. It is not time to short. We are now in a rally or consolidation phase. It will take several months to find out if this is a real bottom or just another bear market rally. I believe right now that the coming rate cut is the main engine driving this rally. People are positioning themselves ahead of it. What happens after the Federal Reserve cuts rates in January will be telling.