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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (40964)	1/15/2001 3:09:06 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

L3- I am curious why you are so sure that the Fed will not go 50 bp at end of Jan. (IMO- not a slam dunk, but can not be ruled out either).. For that argument (no 50 BP cut), it seems, one would want to get as far away from the manufacturing data as possible....despite the upward revision, man. data is pretty bad....if anything (even with revision), IMO, that data speaks FOR an additional 50 BP.. Its in other areas where the true excesses lie...not manufacturing.. Finally, given the radical 50 bp cut 2 weeks ago...if the Naz is sitting on 2000-2300 come end of Jan., you think Greenie's only doing 25 bp? His last 2 actions (speech in Dec./surprise rate cut) smell a lot like "here's the floor boys"... We may or may not get the 50 bp, but the Fed sure seems friendly..

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (40964)	1/15/2001 4:23:50 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Respond to of 42787

Lee: I think 25 basis points is a given. Think about it. If the FED didn't lower by the 50 basis points we would have had a crash by the end of the 1st week (1800 on the naz anyway). Scary thought and he is still scared so I still don't rule out a 50bp. Now if the market has factored in a 50 (if we break 2700 to the upside it definitely has) and we only have a 25 well we all know that will lead to, a good restest of supports. At this point I think we stay above 2,500 but if we break I'll be running for the hills (probably be whipsawed again). Since his last statement about more of a concern for the economy versus inflation we can still see the 50. Just don't ask me for the odds. I think we need to see the market the week before (and it is the honeymoon period, but history in a bull doesn't work in the bear) the meeting. If it rallys and is overbought odds will be its sold either way. Tim