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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan Gallaspy who wrote (263)	1/15/2001 7:47:15 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 95765

Alan, yes - that's the book. Most stocks I've looked at with Weinstein's method in mind don't backtest well with it. AMAT is almost ideally suited to it because of the shape of the stock chart from bottom to top. The method gets you in later than other TA methods, but is safer. So far Weinstein has kept me from buying some declining tech stocks that looked 'cheap' and got cheaper. I have no problem with buying above the bottom and selling below the top. It doesn't get you all possible gains, but I wasn't getting those anyway because I hung on too long. With a stock like AMAT it might be OK to buy before the 30 wk ma signal appears because you know it's a cyclic stock with almost no surprises due to management mistakes. It's mostly driven by the semiconductor cycle which in turn drives semi equip orders. >Are we looking for the price to cross the 30 DMA line to act?< Yes. Weinstein has a few other conditions: industry group going up, positive RS etc. You can see it would have worked well on two uplegs in the past. So, using the method you make the assumption it will work again. Maybe it won't. stockcharts.com Gottfried