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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brandon who wrote (11700)	1/15/2001 9:39:18 PM
From: Gary D	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42834

Brandon: "I would say that if he had a signal from a valid system and had the courage to act on it, then regardless of the outcome, yes, it was a success. Trading is not about buying and selling stocks so much as its about managing your risk and taking your signals without exception." I agree. To illustrate the point: If a guy with an excellent, valid system does the following: a) comes up with a probability distribution of various outcomes. b) interprets his probability distribution to determine the range of 'most likely' outcomes, c) acts on his correct interpretation. And then, if the actual outcome falls outside the range of likely outcomes (due to bad election, terrorist anthrax release, etc.), does that mean he made a bum call? I say no. This was not a bum call if his system generated a valid probability distribution and he interpreted it correctly. And of course, one must realize that a probability distribution can and will vary with time, necessitating that one continually reconsider his position. With regard to Brinker, whether or not he has a valid system for the market is something no one can determine for certain, as we don't see the probability distributions it generates, nor do we know the exact inputs to his model. Brinker himself is in the best position to make judgements about his system's validity. Because Brinker himself is in the best position by far to make judgements about his system's validity, it follows that those listeners or subscribers who accord more respect to Brinker's competence and integrity will give more weight to his market calls. So, I assert that all the discussion about whether a call was/is good or bad based on the outcome is, for the most part, B.S. Someone who questions Brinker's competence and integrity might consider one of his calls either "lucky" or "unlucky", but there will be no proof. Either you have confidence in Brinker, or you don't.