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To: Cactus Jack who wrote (8978)1/16/2001 12:51:11 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13572
 
JP - I am not sure which puts you are referring to
but here goes

I hold various financial PUTs but they do not expire until May or later. I assume these are not the ones in question

I hold CIEN, EMLX, AMCC, FEB puts
I hold a small percentage of quite underwater AMCC JAN 60's.
They are underwater primarily due to time decay as I bought these too early. This was not a big cash layout for me.
My biggest tech position in PUTs is AMCC FEB strike 70's

AMCC is quite perplexing. I thought I had it all figured out, but now am quite puzzled.

I have been kicking this around with WalkingShadow to see if we could figure it out. This is what we know and do not know.

1) Maximum pain is 50
2) This maximum pain is primarily the result of a single huge block of Jan 50 calls (approx 18,000 calls) that dwarfs all other positions. This is very unusual. I have not seen it before on major stocks.
3) This block has been out there at least 4 days and possibly very much longer. I just noticed it about trading days ago.
4) This would appear that someone(s) is indeed very bullish to be buying these things
5) OTOH the option pits will try to kill this after earnings to make these calls expire worthless
6) Someone has been unloading AMCC common big time. (This is my perception, but I can not prove it). I have seen huge blocks go at the bid, and dispersed at the ask. This is distribution. In fact I have seen some blocks go below bid.
7) If it is distribution, what do we make of those calls? Is it some kind of hedge? Is it one primary holder of calls or many? Is it the same player?
8) Most bothersome to me is a possibility that I just now considered. The owner of the calls is also the seller of the stock (distributing it at higher prices thanks to the mms and a rising market over the past 3 days). That seller of common is now sitting in a ton of cash ready willing and able to defend that price at 50, if earnings are good.

M