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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (40983)	1/16/2001 10:09:33 AM
From: Sherman Chen	Respond to of 42787

Were you thinking of shorting a California utility? dailynews.yahoo.com

To: JRI who wrote (40983)	1/16/2001 10:23:13 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Noticed that right now the SOX is down 3.5%, but the NAZ/NDX are only down slightly. As mentioned often, I believe the SOX leads the NAZ/NDX. Im not saying that the NAZ/NDX is going to tank, but just saying if the SOX continues down the NAZ/NDX should follow to some degree.

To: JRI who wrote (40983)	1/16/2001 5:39:32 PM
From: sam_o	Respond to of 42787

Does that mean we can short EDISON... and slide???? Or is that chapter seven only???

To: JRI who wrote (40983)	1/17/2001 7:41:54 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

Don't know if that is true or not. Seems to me you never get a free rise so you would just record it as a zero and count the whole sale as the cap gain BWDIK. yesterday's economic data was not good. John Pitera boiled it down best by saying. "Business inventories rose 0.5% in November as retail inventories rose 0.5% compared to the known growth in manufacturing (0.5%) and wholesaling (0.4%). Business sales fell 0.3% after a stronger 0.5% decline in October. Declining sales left more stock on the shelves and a larger inventory to sales ratio of 1.36 from a record low of 1.31 in March." He pointed out it was backward looking but I still think it is a bad sign. CPI comes out tomorrow, maybe it will tame some of this exuberance. INTC met expectations, JNPR beat but not enough to justify it's PE ratio and AMCC same as JNPR. INTC's report is looking worse the more I read it. Revenues would have been down if it hadn't been for the now infamous "other income" and "investment gains". Guidance sounded like a funeral yet I guess it wasn't as bad as many were fearing judging from the futures thus far. NVLS beat the numbers but also made it sound like the world was coming to an end yet it is up huge after hours and is pulling KLAC, AMAT etc up with it as the bulls took extra doses of Prozac before the release fearing the worst. This is absolutely nuts and shows we have not sold off near enough yet to take these fools out. Just about everything was up after hours with JNPR, SNDK, AMCC leading the charge in volume and gains. MMM snuck this tidbit out tonight at 8:45 hoping no one was watching....... Minnesota Mining & Manufacturing Co. (NYSE:MMM - news) on Tuesday said fourth quarter earnings missed expectations because of a slowing economy and a strong U.S. dollar. The company's chairman, W. James McNerney Jr., said in a statement that 3M is reducing its costs in order to achieve double-digit earnings growth in 2001. 3M also said it expects first quarter earnings per share growth in the mid-single digits............. dailynews.yahoo.com Then we have this gem from TER..... As we begin 2001 in semiconductor test, the environment is much less favorable.....we expect to lower shipments 20% from the fourth quarter and to earn about $0.30 per share. biz.yahoo.com Same with RFMD... RF Micro Devices Inc. (NasdaqNM:RFMD - news) on Tuesday reported fiscal third quarter earnings that fell from the same period last year, and said revenues in the quarter ending in March will fall about 10 percent from the third quarter. biz.yahoo.com Basically I see an irrational rally developing that is screaming to be shorted at some point. I will start looking for that point now but am still focused on 3100 or so. Remember there are still a ton of commercial shorts out there and no basis for a sustained rally, none, nada zilch, zero. The recurring theme thus far is we are getting hurt in earnings, the future looks even more bleak and we "hope" the second half of the year will be bright but no one knows for sure. Where there is hope, there are dollars to be stripped from uneducated and foolish hands. Heck north point communications declared bankruptcy tonight and the way things are going, I half expect them to be the #1 gainer tomorrow -ggg- One reason for the market going up still is the record amounts of Treasury liquidity being pumped in. Here was today's heroin dose........ Tuesday January 16, 10:09 am Eastern Time Fed adds $6.745 bln reserves by overnight repos biz.yahoo.com Basically as I said, I was looking for 3100 NDX but not like this. "******" just showed up on SI again so we must be nearing a top soon. This guy has the worst timing I have EVER seen in all my time in the market. If ****** shows up, I may just have to start shorting earlier than planned. It is obvious that Greenspan is watching the markets and for him to see a rally like this on so much bad news has to have him shaking his head and muttering, " They just don't get it". I will now say there is NO WAY, he will cut 50 points next meeting ( Assuming we rally as we appear to be heading today). There is simply too much money still in foolish hands and irrational exuberance is alive and well. I am still long but won't be when tomorrow is over. This reminds me of March. Good Luck, Lee EDIT - a great write up on bank loan exposure by Heinz tonight... Message 15191559 JPM Just missed so add them to the list. Why are we rallying again???? 07:32 [JPM] J.P. MORGAN CHASE'S DEC. 31 LOAN-LOSS ALLOWANCE AT $3.67 BLN, DOWN $800 MLN FROM Q3 07:32 [JPM] J.P. MORGAN CHASE Q4 INVESTMENT BANKING REVENUE AT $3.67 BLN, UP 20% 07:32 [JPM] J.P. MORGAN CHASE Q4 EARNS FALL SHORT OF FIRST CALL CONSENSUS 45 CENTS 07:32 [JPM] J.P. MORGAN CHASE & CO. POSTS Q4 OPG EARNS 37 CENTS VS. YEAR-AGO $1.09/SHR GE's earnings were just lowered yet their target price was raised. Huh????