<Well IRIDQ is BK, but its equity still trades above zero. I guess it shows that for the die hards, investment decisions are more controlled by hope than by an objective appraisal of the facts.> I think Globalstar and Iridium failures show that investors are generally lost in a fog of ignorance. We have little information available. Too often, much of the little we have is wrong. Then there is the difficulty of predicting human [managerial and associated party] behaviour. People do what they want, whether it is actually in their interests or not, because, in their ignorance, they think it is a good idea.
Globalstar thought their high-priced strategy was a good idea. It was not. I thought they would fail, but that being walking, talking, reasonably intelligent people, they would recognize their failure and change their ideas to make the system succeed.
You are right that investments are more controlled by hope, , than by an objective appraisal of the facts. But that applies to the most successful investments too. On a rising market, most people feel pretty smug and intelligent. When their particular company succeeds really well, they think their 'objective' analysis shows their perspicacity.
Maybe it does and maybe it doesn't. Even if the 'right' things appear to have made the company succeed, there is an infinite array of variables, including butterflies taking off in Russia, which could counteract the obviously major issues in the analysis, but by 'good luck', they never amount to anything.
We are all statistical flukes of nature, but with applied intelligence and with environmentally compatible DNA, we can succeed against the odds and the capricious winnowing of all living things, to have our DNA in future generations and our investments succeed too.
Hope springs eternal. Ignorance knows no bounds. Our little glimmer of light gives us that hope. At $1, we obviously don't have a lot of it.
My 'objective' analysis of the facts is that Globalstar LP is worth a LOT more than the debt. Hence, I have not sold my shares to somebody for 1% of what I think the system is worth. If the management of Globalstar and the Service Providers and QUALCOMM decide to, they can make this system sell like hot cakes and fill it and make a huge profit in 2006. I see no reason to give that NPV to somebody else because the marketing has been a dismal failure.
Maybe individuals can't change enough to do it, but the current people who are failing to set the pricing right and market the system can be fired and others who understand how to sell it can be hired.
If we are to default on loans, we might as well default on exclusivity agreements where service providers have failed to keep pace with their promises. So, let's see QUALCOMM fire up the San Diego gateway and start selling handsets direct, over the internet, with Globalstar LP providing pre-paid 5c a minute [to cover interconnection and termination costs] calling in the USA [and Mexico if 5c covers termination charges there]. Sprint would probably handle the calls and might want to sell phones too.
In fact, don't even ask for FCC clearance, just start transmitting. Let Vodafone complain and try to get the system shut down - we'll see them in antitrust antimonopoly, anti-anticompetitive court. Microsoft has been taken to court by the government over anticompetitive behaviour. The exclusivity agreement seems to be a monopolistic, customer-hurting, anticompetitive deal.
QUALCOMM to the rescue of consumers! QUALCOMM could agree to give GlobalstarLP 20% of the retail price of each phone sold as compensation for the really cheap minutes.
It's time to roll out the lawyers and confront the various people standing in the way of the USA citizens enjoying Globalstar service at the prices at which it should be available.
If we are going to take dramatic action such as defaulting on loans, we might as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb.
Mqurice
PS: We could ask for FCC permission but start transmitting on an emergency basis pending their approval to share the spectrum with Vodafone.
If we are going to break the law, which is, "Thou shalt comply with contracts", by defaulting on loans, we should also break the contract with Vodafone and the greedy, ruinous, Service Providers, who have brought Globalstar to its knees. QUALCOMM is obviously transmitting anyway, so it can't be damaging to anyone other than that anticompetitive monopolist, GlobalstarUSA [and the parent company, Vodafone].
What's Vodafone going to do about it? Sue for breach of contract? They would have to get in line behind Jon and other bond-holders. Let them try it - they'll have to prove how their monopoly is serving the interests of the USA consumer in front of Judge Jackson who does NOT like arrogant corporates. Being an expert US antitrust, spectrum, corporate and general bush lawyer, I bet $10 to a knob of sheep dag that Vodafone would accept it.
This is the first time in my life that I have been a party to failing to pay debts. I do not like it. I suppose we have not yet failed to make good on loans and when the marketing is made right, we will repay the money and interest owed. But I don't like the trend.
So, let's have GlobalstarLP, Vodafone, bond holders, QUALCOMM and Loral all start fighting! "Co-operation" didn't work. |
