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To: Oblomov who wrote (58206)	1/16/2001 2:40:46 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 436258

...and will drop off dramatically if a secular bear has begun. note that conceptions in the US are in a ten year old downtrend, also the typical average lead time before secular tops are put in (when the stock market, in its mania phase, becomes more important for a while than procreative appetites). as for Japan, don't rule out RADICAL changes there, forced by the deteriorating situation - immigration policies may well be changed as well. in any case, the 2002-2006 time frame is only a guess. consider that the buyable low may be at prices that are irresistible regardless of demographics. the WHEN estimate is one thing...estimates for the Nikkei quite another.