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To: J F Allen who wrote (1361)	1/16/2001 3:59:32 PM
From: Clappy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 104155

do you think Max-Pain analysis has any validity? I remember Lurqer mentioning ARBA having a Max Pain near 50. I see they held strong despite a number of analyst downgrades today. I wonder it that is the reason why they are up a point or so... Anyone have that link to the Max Pain? I seem to have not bookmarked it on this computer. -Clappy

To: J F Allen who wrote (1361)	1/16/2001 4:31:42 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 104155

Hi Neighbor. do you think Max-Pain analysis has any validity? Looking into the way Max Pain is calculated "a while back", there was a problem with some of its assumptions as I recall. I believe the problem stemmed from whether the OI might in a particular case be skewed by an unusually dominate customer buy or sell OI. On a more practical level, I use it as another "straw in the wind". Assuming the post you referenced was the one I made to GM on the Porch, from the Max Pain on variety of tech stocks I concluded that this week may be "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing". So far, so good, but the week is still young. OTOH there is CREE, moving away from its Max Pain value. It has special problems - no 3 inch wafer and a passel of shorts. In general, since Max Pain implies manipulation I consider if there might be some countervailing manipulation - e.g. ARBA has a much higher Max Pain than its current value. Its recent positive earnings was greeted with five downgrades. That raises a flag for me. Hope all this rambin' helps. lurqer