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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (9249)	1/16/2001 5:35:56 PM
From: Q.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Ian, NVLS is complicated by a recent acquisition of GSNX. NVLS guidance includes GSNX figures, the historical figures you refer to possibly do not. One can draw a mistaken conclusion by comparing last year's results without GSNX to next year's results with GSNX. Apparently I got the 6.1 and 9.1 B figures transposed. They guided analysts to 1.6 B bookings for the year, as compared to 1.9 B, and I think that both of these figures include GSNX. They stated that the Q1 bookings will be down 30-35%. I'm certain I got this figure correct. Mgmt. repeatedly referred to a "downturn". In the Q&A session, it came up quite often. The best guess for the timescale of the downturn is "a couple of quarters", with an upturn by the end of 2001. They stressed that "things are changing" fast and the guidance they are giving is therefore rather rough. Mgmt. discussed how well Novellus as a company performs during a downturn. They said they have not yet received any order cancellations. Just declines in orders and delays in shipments. They mentioned pushouts by Taiwan foundries. (BTW, I suppose this would probably affect MTSN's strip business, which is a big supplier to these same customers.) Calculating a BTB from their guidance, 350 M bookings for Q1 vs. 478 M shipments, we should be expecting to see BTB for the industry of about 0.75 - 0.8.