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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (41545)	1/16/2001 9:05:07 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Gene, I think the street has priced in a major recession of unknown duration. That expectation is looking a little less likely with the INTC report tonight; and even the NVLS report is extraordinarily optimistic for the second half of 2001. Rather than up to 2 down or flat years, NVLS is expecting 2 down or flat quarters before RECORD revenues are again achieved. That growth would be due to the rollout of Cu and 300mm capacity rather than just the dribs and drabs of Cu / 300mm technology buys that we've seen so far. The biggest surprise, to me, is that I saw no PRIA move during after hours trading. And with 300 mm being made real by INTC, I'd expect a major move to occur well prior to yearend for PRIA, MTSN in addition to AMAT, NVLS and KLAC. Goes to show what I know. Ian.

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (41545)	1/16/2001 10:58:49 PM
From: trilobyte	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I just posted detailed cc notes in the previous message. I think we shouldn't be too surprised if equipment stocks start to run now (or at least don't retest anywhere near the bottoms they put in around 10/2000). After all, the focus will now start to be 2nd half 2001. If NVLS's predictions are true, things shouldn't be too bad --at least for them!! Now NVLS seems to be gaining lots of market share and claims to have a dominant position in copper interconnect and 300mm. Anyone wants to tackle the question of how AMAT's products/business in these sectors stack up?? Finally, I think INTC learned their lesson the hard way in 1998. They slowed investments in semi-equip significantly during the asian crisis and were literally caught with their pants down when demand in 1999 exceeded everyone's expectations. This allowed AMD to capture significant market share as INTC couldn't fullfill demand. So I guess they don't want a scenario like that to happen again and this explains why they continue to aggressively ramp up new production technologies. That's how I view it. Trilobyte