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To: Theophile who wrote (1788)	1/17/2001 4:10:58 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 46821

I will leave that to Ollie North and his friends who are so adept at laying blame rather than developing answers. I'm sorry Martin.. but I just don't buy that cop-out... And I don't have to be Ollie North or some other person who may be perceived as politically motivated. This is about leadership and political governance in order to further economic growth. California represents 18% of the total GDP of the US. It doesn't take a brain surgeon to observe the astronomical growth that has occurred in that state which has spurred energy demand, compare it to the limited supply of such energy, and see a recipe for disaster. This is a clear cut case of the pigeons coming home to roost right on the doorstep of the liberal politicians who have spent so much time kowtowing to the environmental extremists who lack even the faintest understanding of what drives an economy. And now CNBC is reporting that rolling blackouts will be instituted in California. Tell me what major corporations are going to do in the future when factoring business costs? I'll lay you odds that they will migrate their businesses to locations where energy supplies are more stable. The Californians have a serious problem that will require years to resolve. And that problem, given CA's percentage of national GDP will become national in scale as ripple effects are felt progressively from west to east. Where California's Governor and other politicians have failed is in the area of educating the masses and having a coordinated energy policy. There is a reason why California is the land of NIMBY and that no new power plants have been built in that state for the past 10 years. Its the arrogance of special interest government versus the realities of economics and what it takes to keep people working at wage scales that provide them a decent living. Life is a cost/benefit analysis and people will generally make the right decisions when provided with the facts. People in California may have paid more attention to energy concerns over the past 10 years had the issue been presented to them where they understood that a good economy cannot last without adequate access to low-cost power. Regards, Ron

To: Theophile who wrote (1788)	1/18/2001 2:45:08 AM
From: Andrew G.	Respond to of 46821

Mr. Thomas: You may want to read this: You said: "Until there is an actual resource shortfall in the offing ..." From another message board: Re: Rolling Blackouts - You Ain't Seen by: larstrader 01/17/01 You Ain't Seen nothing yet. Columbia basin snowpack is 55% of normal. Worst start of the water year since 1974. To satisfy Richardson order, the Grand Coulee resevoir is at its lowest level since the dam was built in 1934. Any new inflows will only make up for what was sold to CA. The CA snowpack is about 50% of normal. 40% of all capacity comes from hydro. Low snowpack typically drives early runoffs. This summer, blackouts won't be rolling, they will be all-day affairs. The west power crisis is only just getting started. This is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. Current solution is to build 15,000 MW of gas-fired CTs. Has anyone thought what that is going to do to gas prices? Has anyone determined how that gas will get to the turbines? Current pipeline capacity is maxed. Sorry, crisis is here to stay until enough business shut down, employees move to new jobs out of the west, and demand drops. Look for long-term recession in the west.

To: Theophile who wrote (1788)	1/18/2001 7:40:51 PM
From: Srexley	Respond to of 46821

You have an interesting theory mthomas777, but it does not sound too plausible to me. I'm just watching what's going on here (I live in CA) and trying to figure it out. As far as theories go, I tend to believe that big business is using this situation to show how bumbling and stupid the government is when it "solves" business problems (deregulation in this case). The main factors that leads me to this opinion involve the government mandated controls on buying power for the utilities (no long term contracts) with no protection in the form of being able to raise prices to the consumer. I am no expert in this, but as a rational thinking business person I don't see how you can put caps on what the customers can be made to pay while taking away the utilities ability to negotiate long term deals for power. Doesn't seem like it could work to me. Kind of reminds me of the insurance legislation we had a few years back. In that case we voted on how much insurance companies can charge (overly simplistic explanation). Sounds nice, but pricing and such is based on real factors like supply and demand (whether its insurance, utilities or merchandise). Not by how much people (or governments) THINK it should cost. Scott