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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (1549)1/17/2001 8:27:17 PM
From: Jerome  Respond to of 1779
 
How are they going to go from < $2B to $12B (AMAT today)

I think AMAT is safe for a few quarters.... but markets change, product life cycles change, and NVLS as mentioned in the conference call three months ago indicated that the company would grow through new products and acquisitions. The GSNX acquisition added about 500 M to the top line growth of NVLS> . A few more like these and NVLS becomes a $4 B company. Keep in mind that its always easier to grow a small company than a large one. I'm not taking anything away from AMAT, but I do recall KM management laughing at WMT, And dozens GM execs said Ford could never outsell GM in the US, and my local lumber yards always said that local yards were more efficient than any chain (until they met Home Depot).

I'm a shareholder in both companies and have confidence that they both will do well. But even you have to notice Cary that for the past three months the difference in NVLS and AMAT's stock price was about $12.00 and recently it has shrunk to about four dollars. The object of owning any of this stuff is to make some money. I'm just betting on two good horses.I have thought about selling off all of my assorted semi's and going with these two winners. But I have yet to reach a conclusion if this would be prudent.

Jerome



To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (1549)1/18/2001 2:22:05 PM
From: Jerome  Respond to of 1779
 
Cary... One of the impressive movements in the semi industry is the amount of consolidation we have seen in the past year. SVGI, GSNX, IPEC, and CFMT. If NVLS is to grow substantially it will be the acquisition route that will move NVLS from where it is today to a doubling in size. Is it not likely that NVLS could acquire some firms that AMAT could not because of anti-trust concerns? I have no idea who would be a suitable acquisition target. Your insights would be appreciated.

Jerome