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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (59030)	1/17/2001 11:23:43 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

"assuming a problem actually exists" don't worry, there's no problem. we're all hallucinating. "54% of Californians don't believe a problem exists" there you have it. we MUST be hallucinating.

To: Ilaine who wrote (59030)	1/18/2001 10:50:52 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Coby: Not to rehash our previous discussion on sat phones, but this month's Popular Science mag has an excellent editorial relating to the amazing number of tech-base items that have huge amounts of money spent on their development, even though negligible dough was spent on examining the probability that the goods might be saleable. As the author points out, no wonder the failure rates are so high. Sat phones are mentioned as a good example. (g) My gang made out like bandits on both Iridium and GSTRF, mainly because my research (and it wasn't rocket science, believe me) showed that the company simply didn't have a hope of finding enough paying customers to keep the electricity bill paid, never mind, amortize the staggering costs of developing the system. Shorting that stock was not a high risk situation, as long as one had patience. As a result of many painful experiences in my early stock market involvement, I learned that finding out whether a product is selling (or can be sold) as well as ascertaining just how much a product or service seems to be desired, cut the risks of investing in tech-related situations rather nicely. For that reason, I have carved out a decent niche in endeavouring to do just that. I love technology, as do many of us. This makes us all vulnerable to its "dazzle". But if it can't be sold or sold at a profit, sooner or later it flops. I have also learned to pay close attention to a company's debt levels. Debt is certainly a wonderful aspect of our economy, but it can bite as we all know. It is of extreme importance to me currently, as the economy is cooling. As the economy cools, there comes a point where a debt-encumbered company simply can no longer service its debt. As this situation worsens (and it usually does), most companies resort to attempting to raise new equity (and frequently can't) or worse, dip into the debt trough even further. In either case, things for the shareholders go from bad to worse. My favourite situations tend to be those where the unknowing and uncaring sheep continue to buy stock which will shortly become worthless when the debtholders take over the assets or the bankruptcy courts hand those debtholders all the new stock and cancel the old stock ("reorganization"). The term "mortally wounded" says it all. Best, Earlie