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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stcgg who wrote (67080)	1/18/2001 5:53:24 AM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Stcgg--re Leading diagonals--that's why I had mentioned that the move off the bottom, when completed, could turn out to be just A of an ultimate ABC, instead of Wave 1 of a new Bull. re your Wave Count from the Sept1 high--this is what Steve Hochberg is hoping is the case-but there are 2 things wrong with this that make it unlikely...1)the various oscillators like macd hit their maximum downside at the October low, which is your wave 1. Most times, the oscillator troughs in either 3(iii) or at the end of 3. I've never seen it trough at the bottom of 1--implying that it likely wasn't w1.......2) Your 3 doesn't flow well, since it is a series of abc's--which can be seen in 5 or a C but not in 3.....taking the above points together, I think your scenario is probably not the operative one. fwiw-I think a much more likely count is that from the Sept1 peak, EITHER Wave A ended at the October low and B ended early Nov and the rest was C...OR...we saw Waves 1,2 and 3 in the move down to the October low and from the early Nov peak we did a 5th wave extension. Since the Mar/May drop was more likely an abc rather than an impulse, I am inclined to favour the idea that the drop from Sept1 to the Oct low was A and not 1,2,3....but, of course the we could have seen a completed impulse from Sept1 to Jan01 and THAT was the A of a larger ABC (meaning that one more low is coming for the C--after a 38%(3000) to 62%(3500-more likely) Bear trap B, which we may currently be in. That is why I said 'the jury is out' on that at present. My experience with Cycle Pro is that Steve Williams has long been wrong in his counts (I read his site) and keeps having to relabel them. Like SteveH, once one becomes a steadfast Bear because of a belief that Big Wave V ended at the Spring 01 peak, all analysis since then is made to fit the author's belief rather than vice versa...But, if the Spring peak was a III and not a V, then the entire move down to Jan2001 looks like textbook IV (or the first phase of a longer Triangle or Flat)and everything flows....I follow SteveH's stu because I like much of what he presents. But I don't think his preferred count is the right one (his Alternate is).--cheers.