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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Lee who wrote (40509)	1/18/2001 4:52:19 AM
From: QwikSand	Respond to of 64865

I loaded up on SNDK in the teens. It seems to me, a non-professional amateur investor who doesn't know sh*t, that it's a no-brainer. I also bought some STEC right after it IPO'd. That may come back to bite me, but a flash shortage is a flash shortage. Do any photography? I'm a Canon devotee. Canon is coming out late this year with the EOS 1D, a digital camera based on their current flagship pro camera body with a full-frame 35mm CMOS sensor that will put out 10-12MB image files (it's 6 or 7 megapixels or summat). That's a leading edge device...those ultra-sharp, high-res CMOS sensors are going to drop in price like rocks, and there's simply not going to be enough flash to go around. That's forgetting about MP3 players and PDA's and e-books and Steve Ballmer's ankle bracelet and whatnot. I do see one danger to flash: that IBM and others will keep increasing the capacity and lowering the power of those CF-form-factor microdrives. They've already got a 1GB one for $500 that consumes less power than the original 340Mb version. Power consumption is still too high compared to flash, but batteries keep getting a lot better too. How is flash going to keep up on the capacity front for many of these devices? This is the danger. --QS

To: Steve Lee who wrote (40509)	1/18/2001 9:07:24 AM
From: stribe30	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

Steve Lee said: That Dresden plant is a huge millstone around AMD's neck. OK, AMD got lucky in the last yr and profited from Intel not being able to satisfy demand while involved in a transition to P4/RDRAM. That undersupply situation is now reversed and Intel is still building capacity (paid cash in full). AMD is now facing rapidly deteriorating ASP's with a big debt bill for its German fab. ------------------- Hmmm... it appears AMD"s marketing department needs to work on a few more people if this attitude is the prevailing one in management at Sun as well :) .I'm not going to get involved in a big argument about this.. I'll leave that to the actual AMD investors to do so, but this is flawed thinking on your part and I feel I need to respond. Luck may have played a part in AMD's success due to Intel's problems, but the fact is if the Athlon had been a failure performance wise in comparison to Intel, it wouldnt have mattered whether Intel was having shortages or not. You have to be able to compete with product, and AMD did this.. and also for the most part execute flawlessly in the later stages of 1999 and for most of 2000. I'm also not sure where you get the "ASP is deteriorating" part.. the ASP was at a lower level this time around due to the bargain basement K6 being sold in the Processor mix (2 mil of them I believe). They are cutting production of that dinosaur out .. and their next qtr will be totally dependent on Athlons/Durons and any of the new derivatives they're promising.. which is why they forecast the ASP to be between 90-100$ - which is where it was last qtr or 2 if my memory serves me right.. They may be flat.. but hardly deteriorating... and since their presence is virtually nil in the server and mobile market, and new offerings are coming out for those 2 specific markets, AMD has a better chance of the ASP going up then it does down (IMHO). "AMD's flash will keep it from going under" - Ridiculous.. AMD is nowhere near going under .. I realize Intel investors and Intel would like that, but thats wishful thinking. AMD will do just fine in 2001 against Intel's processor offerings -thanks very much. But I will agree that flash will continue to be strong for AMD. As an example of this.. AMD and Palm just signed a 3 yr agreement to become Palm's primary Flash provider. Also... the perception of Flash slowing down will hurt AMD is a bit inaccurate.. TO quote from a fellow who runs one of my favourite tech sites: "AMD over the past two years has been very aggressively pursuing long term Flash contracts. What the analysts out there seem completely blind to observing is that a combination of this and the fact that much of AMD's Flash is not of the standard commodity type will mean that decreases in the demand to supply ratio in commodity Flash will really not have too much of a negative effect on their bottom line." jc-news.com Anyhow.. thats my defence of AMD... I apologize for going sorta off-topic on a SUN thread ;) FWIW, I think Sun would be a good ally for AMD to have and vice versa.