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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: k_maxwell who wrote (5411)	1/18/2001 1:40:43 PM
From: James Fulop	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5853

"Gilder bases the removal on CIEN's Cyras acquisition and its continuing move (in the wrong direction) embracing Sonet. <snip> CIEN is now moving its business in the wrong direction." I'd be the last to question Gilder as I have not read the report. But let me post an article written by a Cyras employee recently about this next generation SONET equipment that will help carriers profitably make the transition over to next generation networks. "Resuscitating SONET in the MAN To remain competitive, carriers need a cost-effective and flexible optical-switching technology that leverages SONET's potential to deliver innovative services." lw.pennwellnet.com And a description from the same link. "Blending SONET and DWDM Adopting dense wavelength-division multiplexing (DWDM) in metropolitan area networks (MANs) is not an immediate game-changing imperative. Industry research indicates that between now and 2003, OC-48 (2.5-Gbit/sec) line rates will predominate as the workhorse, physical-layer, transport medium. Yet by 2005, OC-192 (10-Gbit/sec) and OC-768 (40-Gbit/sec) deployment will double. The turn-up of OC-192 in MAN rings will be explosive with OC-192 eclipsing lower line-rate transport systems as the baseline standard, according to Communications Industry Researchers (Charlottesville, VA). Among long-haul backbone carriers, 1998 showed SONET deployment mixed among networks using OC-48 to OC-192 add/drop multiplexers (ADMs) with multiple lambda DWDM capabilities. In 1999, deployment shifted toward use of OC-192 ADMs with 16- to 40-lambda DWDM. Between long-haul and the metro areas, this mix of capacity will serve customer needs into the foreseeable future. Most MAN carriers recognize that DWDM will, at some point, become an integral part of their network architectures. But based on existing pricing models within the metro market, the cost of deploying DWDM is still prohibitive, especially when rolling it out means retiring the existing network infrastructure. At the present time, such barriers make this an unacceptable option for metro carriers since approximately 80% of these companies' capital is allocated to optimizing central-office equipment, with the remainder used for channel-related outlays where DWDM makes more sense. Since seamless end-to-end service provisioning is the goal for any network operator, deriving the most benefit from the existing SONET infrastructure within the metro transport market is a priority. So instead of deploying DWDM, these carriers are focusing on how to transition from a circuit-centric to a packet-centric transport model. Metro carriers are aggressively searching for creative SONET-based approaches that will efficiently and cost-effectively serve the local customer's circuit-switched requirements and at the same time build mixed-traffic on-ramps to the core networks where DWDM now predominates."