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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (84644)	1/18/2001 2:58:09 PM
From: cnyndwllr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

jim_p, thanks, that does help. I still like the odds after this sell off. Addressing some of the factors you raise, I think the counter position is more likely over the intermediate term, both individually and in the aggregate. <<The market also hates uncertainty, and world oil inventories are now back to normal (higher in Europe lower in US).>> ----- I'm now an oil ghoul. I think opec will hold it's cohesiveness and that they will cut what is necessary to keep oil over the low 20's unless there is a falling out among them over some non-oil issue. The only other source of supply is non-oil energy, which is slow to develop, or increased drilling. I like that increased drilling part. <<Economic activity is very uncertain with the second largest economy in the world going in the tank, and the US heading south. The big unanswered question is will the US pull down the Asian economies as they did in 1997-8.>> --- Not unless energy prices and availability "tax" the economy into recession. I don't see any other catalyst to force the economy to it's knees. If that tax is there, it's hard to believe that we wouldn't be giving tax incentives or otherwise drilling full bore. <<To add to this mess, the longer the tech's are stable and don't crash, the more cash will start to buy tech's for fear of missing out on the next tech rebound.>> --- You are right. I do this myself and today is a good example. Not only are the oils going down partly for this reason, but the small caps in tech are going down while money moves to the large caps based upon last night's earnings and the expectations for tonight's earnings in sun and others. An alternative is that after this qtr's earnings and the fed meeting, the tech sector sees another quarter of earnings warnings and there is uncertainty there. Not short-short term, but beyond that, I am still optimistic that there is good money to be made on drillers and service companies. E&p's I leave to others with more courage. I better stop posting or I will steal iso's record. Ed