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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stribe30 who wrote (25672)	1/18/2001 4:33:11 PM
From: TechieGuy-alt	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

It is (somewhat) logical if you look at it from the following point of view: 1. Most people were thinking that last years performance was a "fluke". AMD making hay with a decent product while INTC was having some "uncharacteristic" troubles. 2. They expected INTC to shake out of their slumber and stomp AMD out with the P4 (etc.) which brings me to.. 3. I think that the threat of the P4's imminent arrival was much worse (to the stock) that the arrival itself. Consider the following: a. INTC demoed a 1.5GHz P4 in January of 2000! b. Elmer (and maybe Paul) made leading statements like: "If the P4 can do 1.5G in Jan, think what speed it will be launched in Q4!" They wanted us to "draw our own conclusions" and quake in our shoes. c. INTC demoed a 2G P4 later in the year. d. Right before the intro of the P4, someone from the INTC board (Elmer?) claimed to have "Seen in internal memo" stating that the P4 will be launched at 1.7G's. e. This tied into the "millions of 1.7GHz P4's" being pumped out of Israel. All that Timna capacity was to go to fabbing P4's. Shake in your boots AMD infeidels!!!! Then, after all this hoopla, the mighty (at one point > $500Billion market cap) INTC, launches the P4 at 1.5G! But wait, there are 1.7's lurking around the corner. Wait for Jan they say. Jan comes around and we see not a 1.7, but a 1.3 GHz! P4. "OH!No!, INTC is moving in the wrong direction"- think the analysts to themselves. Then mighty INTC forecasts 15% down Q1 and SHAKE-IN-YOUR-BOOTS-AMD forecasts a "flat" Q1. I think that Joe Osha summarized the situation valuation quite aptly: "The stock is priced assuming a revenue/profit implosion in the future, that is quite unlikely to happen". Today's action is a panicky reaction to that realisation. TG