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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (115762)	1/18/2001 6:03:11 PM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

I bought Jan eBay calls going into earnings like everyone else in the country did. BTW RE:Cpst >NEW YORK, Jan 18 (Reuters) - California's electrical power crisis has boosted shares of companies that make alternative energy technologies, but analysts and money managers warned on Thursday that the rally has created a speculative bubble that is bound to burst soon. With California's two largest electric utilities on the brink of bankruptcy and the most populous U.S. state suffering power outages, shares of companies that make solar cells, fuel cells, microturbines and other alternative power supplies started to soar two weeks ago. But while some alternative energy companies may be prescient long-term investments, the recent stock gains will not hold up, analysts said. They said investors will begin to realize that most of the companies will not flood markets with products any time soon. They also noted that few of these companies, which include solar equipment maker Evergreen Solar Inc.(NASDAQ:ESLR) make money and none of them have a quick fix for power shortages. "I sense that these stocks are speculative," said Charlie Crane, a fund manager at Spears Benzak Salomon Farrell, which has $4 billion in assets under management. "They are not that close to provide any full commercial solutions to California's problems." Evergreen has gained 90 percent in the first few weeks of this year, after a 65 percent drop in the two months it traded last year, while fuel cell developer Plug Power Inc. (NASDAQ:PLUG) has gained the same percentage, after a 48 percent plunge last year. Not all alternative energy companies have reported gains seen by Evergreen, but their advance looks healthy compared with the gain of more than 10 percent for the Nasdaq Composite Index so far this year. Miniturbine maker Capstone Turbine Corp.(NASDAQ:CPST) was up 51 percent and fuel cell maker H Power Corp.(NASDAQ:HPOW) was up 37 percent this year, while flywheels manufacturer Active Power Inc.(NASDAQ:ACPW) was up 23 percent and solar equipment maker AstroPower Inc.(NASDAQ:APWR) up 22 percent. One sign of a speculative bubble is ballooning trading volume, investors said. Trading volume for stocks of many alternative energy companies has been heavier in the first part of January, 2001 than in the entire second half of 2000, according to Price Headley, president and chief executive officer of Lexington, Kentucky-based research firm BigTrends.com. The average daily volume of fuel cell maker FuelCell Energy Inc.(NASDAQ:FCEL) this year, jumped 77 percent in the opening trading sessions of 2001, compared with the average daily volume in the last six months of 2000, while the daily volume in Ballard Power System Inc. (NASDAQ:BLDP), another fuel cell maker, surged 44 percent this year compared with the second half of last year. The current market value of these companies is based on revenues that they promise to generate over many years, said Spears Benzak's Crane. "Is Plug Power worth more than $24?" said Crane. "Maybe. But they won't fix (California's) problems any time quicker than we thought four weeks ago." In fact, most of these companies have yet to turn a profit according to research firm First Call/Thomson Financial. AstroPower is the only company to report consistent earnings, posting a profit every quarter since early 1999. The interest in these stocks has mostly come from retail investors, money managers said. "This is the kind of thing that retail brokers just love," said Donald Coxe, chairman and chief strategist at Harris Investment Management Inc. who manages $12.5 billion in assets. Coxe. "But it's not my kind of (investment). I own companies that have earnings." Retail customers bought the stocks based on the assumption that California would need to pay people who have access to energy as a "magic solution" to its problem, Coxe said. Most of the alternative energy stocks performed miserably last year, investors noted. Capstone fell 32 percent since trading began in June. Active Power slid 58 percent since August. AstroPower, which did managed to gain 124 percent in 2000, may be one of the few to hang on to recent gains, analysts said. "It is well-placed to take advantage of the power problems because it has not only sold its products for a couple of years, but has also been actively marketing in California," said James Logerfo, an analyst at Bank of America Montgomery. Another Wall Street analyst, Masroor Siddiqui of Goldman Sachs, also was more upbeat than most money managers, saying the upward momentum in these stocks may continue for at least January. "This will continue as long as the issue in California remains," said Siddiqui. "But by the end of the month, these companies will report their quarter earnings and investors will realize that they don't have any earnings." .

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (115762)	1/18/2001 7:33:49 PM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

Glenn, the archives here show it was Billy who brought Vert to this thread. Bvsn and Vign too. See what you can learn from a Montgomery conference? >VerticalNet shares fell 1/4, or 4 percent, to close at $6 on Thursday, above a year low of $3-1/2 and below a 52-week high of $148-3/8.

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (115762)	1/19/2001 12:08:56 AM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

>Currently the fastest-growing segment of the population, with an estimated spending power of $155 billion, the teen sector could be way cool, retailers and investors say. Among the major publicly held players are American Eagle Outfitters, Abercrombie & Fitch and Pacific Sunwear of California, all of which feature a preppy or sporty look. Farther out on the fashion fringe are Hot Topic, Gadzooks, Buckle, Delia's and Deb Shops. And on the periphery is Too, operator of the Limited Too stores. It is the entry point for 7- and 8-year-olds being coaxed over the line from Barbie to body glitter. Too was spun off by The Limited in 1999. "There are a lot of reasons to be looking at this space," said Jeffrey Klinefelter, an analyst at US Bancorp Piper Jaffray in Minneapolis. Aside from the long-term demographics, Klinefelter said, there are some short-term considerations. Last year's weak results mean teen-specialty retailers should deliver strong comparative earnings this year. The teen-apparel sector was nearly wiped out in the early 1990s by several major bankruptcies, including those of Merry-Go-Round, Edison Bros. and Petrie Stores. But out of the wreckage, a group of small, regional retailers rose to fill the void. After 30 years in the teen business, Deb Shops suffered through three money-losing years in the 1990s. But it survived, relying on cash reserves, and its 270 stores around the nation are now catering to the children of the former teenagers who bought bell-bottoms when the company was young. Like all retailing, the sector can be volatile. Add in the teen factor, and the highs and lows become hormonal. "When you're hot, they are loyal. But their loyalty lasts only as long as what they're wearing today is cool," said Marvin Rounick, chief executive officer of Deb Shops. Still, retailers in this sector hope to profit from teenagers' demographic strength as the fastest-growing age group. Last year, the nation's teenagers spent $129.6 billion, up from $74.9 billion in 1995, according to the Rand Youth Poll. Monthly spending by 13- to 17-year-olds who shop regularly was $381, and nearly half of that went to clothing, according to a survey by element, a New York youth-marketing firm. Teens have money to spend, thanks to part-time jobs, savings, allowances and gift certificates. But the major source of financing is the parental checkbook. Or, as Deb Shop's chief financial officer, Lewis Lyons, calls it: "The First National Bank of Dad." Lyons said teen spending is sensitive to gasoline prices, but for the most part it is recession-proof. Dorothy Lakner, a retail analyst with CIBC World Markets in New York, agreed. "Even as the economy is slowing down, teenagers are less likely to stop spending on clothing," she said. "It's very important to them while they are forming their identity during these years. Many retailers in this sector create a "community" through a catalog or Web presence that includes editorial content and databases that go beyond the more traditional retail experience. "Teenagers are probably more computer-savvy than their parents, and they took to this idea of seeking out a community online," Lakner said. "Teens are social. They want to be with other kids. The company that can deliver this 360-degree experience is in a strong position."

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (115762)	1/19/2001 11:51:20 AM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Glenn, I think Billy is right. Amzn needs to be a software company. And if it doesn't get out of retail...all will be lost, except for the insiders who made $billions on the way out. >January 19, 2001 12:00 AM PT by Aaron Goldberg RELATED STORIES • Holiday sales top $10B, reports say • In 2000, b-to-c plays find they're in a crowded sector • More by Aaron Goldberg -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From the February 2001 issue of UPSIDE magazine Just because a company achieves dazzling success as one thing doesn't mean it's got precisely the right strategy. With all the success that comes in the first business, it's hard to change course and become another. Yet this is precisely the challenge that Amazon (AMZN) faces and, in my opinion, is the only way out of its current capital-structure predicament. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Virtually every b-to-c site is compared to Amazon, and hardly any measure up. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You see, the reality is that Amazon has far and away the best and most innovative consumer experience on the Web. Virtually every b-to-c site is compared to Amazon, and hardly any measure up. Why not bottle that expertise and sell it? Simply said, let's make Amazon a software company! Not only would it help drive new and different revenue sources, but it has a number of very interesting patents that can be a base technology platform for this software-licensing business. Imagine the possibilities Consider, if you will, the impact that such a development might have on the Amazon financials and, by extrapolation, the capital structure of the firm. Taking the latest quarterly numbers, let's start with the assumption that Amazon could quickly grow to $150 million in sales. Not an outlandish figure, but certainly no gimmee. So let's add about $45 million of revenue to Amazon for the last quarter and about $150 million for the last 12-month period. Although this is not enough money to wipe out the loss from operations -- not even close, mind you -- it does make a big dent. Not only does it make a dent, but if we assume that this revenue is highly leveraged by Amazon's current development efforts, it should yield a very tidy profit. Perhaps as much as a 25 percent margin, depending on how you allocate development costs between the site and the software company. Clearly, such an improvement to the business model would make a huge difference to the company's beleaguered capital structure. Further, depending on how Amazon accounts for its development activities, it might yield further depreciable expense to improve future cash flow. Imagine the market power that would come from Amazon's ability to drive the usage and interaction model of most of the successful b-to-c commerce sites. Everyone would have the same one-click checkout, all sites would have the "Page I Made" feature, and all sites could have a very similar navigational path, making it far easier to transact actual purchases than today's myriad designs do. This would also give Amazon a Microsoft-esque (MSFT) market power in the b-to-c space. As long as it is driving the paradigm, building market presence, revenue, and the entire industry, it improves the value of the company. I was initially thrilled with the zShops concept, but this is an even better approach for Amazon, as it's a far better business model and creates an opportunity for huge leverage on its market position as the premier Web e-tailer. It's the most effective way to leverage its patent portfolio, also. A good idea? It's clear to me that there is huge promise for Amazon in taking a bit of a different view regarding its business strategy. Yet this isn't to say that Amazon should run right out and do this. There are many important issues that would need to be resolved if the company were to be successful. Not the least of which is actually creating a software company from scratch -- no mean feat. Or perhaps, instead of selling on its own, it could license some very successful sales organizations, such as IBM (IBM) or Oracle (ORCL). The reality is that much of the value that Amazon creates is not just about e-tailing. The company is truly one of the best and most capable software developers. How can you have that position, yet drive $0 from it? The key is to unlock all the value the firm has, especially when you're looking at a boatload of convertible debt coming due.