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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce A. Thompson who wrote (10349)	1/19/2001 9:57:16 AM
From: Mark Johnson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

From the Wennerstrom Semi Equipment Analysis Thread: I think that the biggest difference between the bottoms in 1998 and 2000 is that 1998 coincided with a semi-equip business cycle bottom while 2000 has been influenced by a bear market and a general economic slowdown. It was easy to commit all cash and hold for the upswing in 1998. It is much more difficult now. The industry had record sales and profits in 2000 and demand for their products has not been exhausted. The economic weakness will probably extend the period before the next down cycle, but peak sales might have been reached. I believe that peak prices for the up cycle probably have been reached. In this environment, it is difficult to commit all one's cash, even in the face of the low prices we saw in December. It is also difficult to completely sit on the sidelines and wait for the next business cycle bottom. If we continue to move up from here, I would tend to be a seller rather than a buyer. The higher its goes, the more I sell. I would be completely out at moderate to large fractions of the 2000 price peaks.