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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Uncle Frank who wrote (38142)1/18/2001 11:38:15 PM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
JDSU has never been a favorite of yours, Frank, and God knows, I lost enough money on it last year to choke a horse!

However, as Bruce pointed out, with the SDLI merger about to go though, we are seeing some movement.

Since I am all SDLI to take advantage of the premium on the merger, I look forward to the merger with high hopes.



To: Uncle Frank who wrote (38142)1/19/2001 11:50:01 PM
From: trilobyte  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 54805
 
Genesis Microsystems: Baby Gorilla?

most recent CC write-up:

Message 15206731

Message 15206880

**********************************************************

Reply to my CC highlights by Goupup on YAHOO! GNSS
thread: Gorilla talk...

Re: CC recap!
by: goupup 01/19/01 01:34 pm EST
Msg: 10610 of 10618

Thank you for your recap. It is very helpful. Amnon and his newly assembled team have done very very well excuting to the plan. PR team have done well coaching Amnon and his team for Press releases and presentaion. It shows improvement.

GNSS has finally 3 quaters of sequential growths and year over year growths. It is a fine time to be rediscovered by the street and fund managers. Hope to see Upgrade announcements soon by analysts and pick a few more analysts from big and influential firms.

PR/IR team of GNSS!!!!! Are you working on it?

I especially liked their decision to trade off of Q3 earnings $0.03/share with investments in speeding up new prodduct introductions. It is a very very smart move for managing the street expectation with future earnings as well. The Q4 earnings is likly to be $.13/14 range with upside potential, and Year over year earnings growths looks a lot smoother after 900% YoY Q3 growth. When and if FPD demand grows faster than 60% in CY'01, then there would be nice upside, if macro economics is depressing the growth rate, then we meet the expectation. A smart move and recomendation by CFO and/or by PR/Investor relationship consultant.

I also liked Amnon's answer on why there is a large buildup of invetory with no concern for invetory write off potential problems. I sensed the confidence in his answer for question.

GNSS has become the crowning Gorilla apparent of the FPD contrller market. The next adjacent segments are Digi-CRT, DVD/DTV.

Hold on to your shares for small long term investors for Tornado warning signs are everywhere with many design wins in FPD(more to come), consumer segments-DVD/DTV which is still in early market stage, as well as soon to be Digi CRT(rapid deplyment of technology expected). I hope to see GNSS making many of us multi Millionairs with many splits and continuing growths for next 3-4 years, like Cirrus logic did to many investors for a few years back.

SAGI and PXlW are far behind in dual controllers. Acquisitions have at least 6-9 months to work out integrating to their respective volume product lines and yet they need to prove reliabilities. Meanwhile GNSS is hitting a BIG strike and knocking all the bowling pins with major design wins in FPD. SAGI and PXLW may be losing market shares, if not already.

My prediction based on Gorilla Game is that SAGI and PXLW will be a Chimps who would say " I could have an opportunities to become the Gorilla instead of GNSS", by the end of March '01 quarter or by the end of June'01.

By then GNSS is so BIG in FPD, DVD/DTV/Digi CRT segments such that they can not challenge until the next wave of technology comes alnong.

In FPD, GNSS has market shares more than 50% in Analog, and close to 100% in dual, and closely competing in Digi controller area. However earnings shares of GNSS is close to 75%(need to verify after all the announcements are in) and greater than that of 2 Chimps and a soon to be monkey combined. Amnon said they are growing rapidly.

Next adjacent markets(bowling pins) are dual CRT and DVD/DTV arena. SAGI and PXLW may not be able to catch up with run away 2 year+ experience curve of GNSS designing and producing dual contrller chips. I think that the most of FPD experience will be transferred to adjacent segments per '99 annual report.(need to be verified) San Jose might be able to offer commnent here.

I think that SIMG will most likely to become a monkey and be aquired by someone for their IP rights and people. They are not excuting well and not fast enough.

Said enough today.

##########################################################

More Gorilla talk from Goupup:

by: goupup 01/19/01 11:17 am EST
Msg: 3199 of 3199

I just happened to drop into see what the discussions looks like after earnings annoncement of SAGI and notice familiar names.

According to Gorilla Game investing theory, there are plenty of signs of tornado is coming in FPD controller field. By June of 2001(my take or observation)a
when the FPD monitor hit the retail price at $600 (3X the 17" CRT) when this time come, Gorilla Game suggests that you want dump all of Chimps-pixl, sagi and simg who all have a wish to be the dominating Gorilla in the controller jungle and are failing or start to lag behind the swiftly emerging crowing Chimp. Then you need to load up the Gorilla which is GNSS here.

GNSS has more than 50%+ market shareand growing and 75%+ profit shares of FPD controller field. And many many top tier FPD disign wins to their claim and more to come.

My prediction is that SiMg is most likey to turn to a monkey, since there is no analog solution. Fast drop in market Cap also might support my claim.

SAGI and Pxlw who are still having an aspiration to be the Gorilla, are about 2 years behind GNSS for catching up by offering dual-analog to their digital solutions by acquiring small companies, respectibly. I just want to to note that two acquired companies are startups which were sampling right off the design tapes, at the time of acqusition announcement and has yet to prove reliability of its technologies. In addition, Chimps will still have to go through integrating acquired technologies into their current production product lines.

GNSS has done this in '99 when they acquired Paradise Semi and has been gaining major design volume production customers. They are ramping up volume and this is the reason why GNSS has the large inventory build up and Amnon did not worry about this build up of inventory potential write offs, when a caller mentioned in CC.

Think twice about picking up any of chipms as for a long term investment, unless you see potential short term bounce.

happy investing.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

recent design wins (go back to 11/2000).

A who's who of the pc/electronic industry (note NEC,
Samsung, DELL, LG Electronics, etc.):

biz.yahoo.com

biz.yahoo.com

biz.yahoo.com

biz.yahoo.com

biz.yahoo.com

biz.yahoo.com

biz.yahoo.com

biz.yahoo.com

biz.yahoo.com

Trilobyte