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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KevinMark who wrote (67190)	1/19/2001 3:17:02 AM
From: Stcgg	Respond to of 99985

KevinMark, I Agree This Won't be Pretty.. EYE of the HURRICANE...... Earnings will only get worse. We were do for this bounce, and I don't expect it to end, until we hit at least 3400-3500, but probably around 3700, which was my target I stated last year, before tax day. We will more than likely sell-off right before the fed meeting and then after. BUT, the dips will be bought, because earnings will be out of the way for the short-term. The California energy crisis is slowly, but surely sinking it's teeth into pockets of several companies based there, like SUNW. They shut down operations today because of the power situation. Miller Brewing's plant shut down too, and laid off 200 employees. Their shipping beer from TX to cope with the shut down. This will have impact earnings going forward IMO. Also, IMO earnings will slowly deteriorate as the year moves forward. Investors have to remember, that these earning's reports are based on REvised lowered earnings. Therefore, more speed bumps will be encountered as we move forward to future earnings. We must not forget the amount of FUTURE lay-offs announced over the past 2 months. Those lay-offs are in the works, and will create an unemployment number that will shock the majority within 6 months. With that in mind, and earning's growth slowing, we are simply resting in the eye of hurricane, that will be a safe haven for the 1st quarter. The traders know their time is measured and the investors know they must exit before the next dose of reality hits, which is that no amount of rate decreases can change the course of this economy.. The energy crisis, lay-offs, bankruptcies, resultant bad loans, over-supply and under-demand haven't gone unnoticed in the market, just placed on the back burner for now.. But when they all decide to exit simultaneously, that's when it all blows up - the higher the market gets, the faster it evaporates.. Then the global meltdown that follows will be all that is left of the Greenspan Put.. >><<