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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (41595)	1/19/2001 8:50:56 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Now trading at 51 5/8 in premarket and moving up... Does that count as beating your $50 resistance point?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (41595)	1/19/2001 1:24:09 PM
From: mitch-c	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

So, any guesses (or don't you care, because you know it will eventually happen) on when the downturn in bookings bottoms? Mid or late 2001? Given the good discussion we've had recently, I'll guess "sooner than seems currently anticipated" - by about the time 2Q numbers are announced, midway into 3QCY01. Bookings seem to be like Texas weather - unpredictable. Sometimes you get hammered by an unanticipated thunderstorm; sometimes the dire warnings fizzle. Often, your neighbor gets deluged while you stay dry. Short term, Jacob, I agree with you - low 40's ahead, no clue when. There's too much good news recently, but not enough to resist anything bad. With AMAT, I think of 5% daily moves as simply "noise in the signal." However, I've been a longtermer like Fred and trilobyte (since 96 too), so I'm using options around the edges instead of selling out completely. (I guessed wrong this week - Jan 45 puts likely to expire.) I'll watch for three ST decision points - 1) Inauguration tomorrow, State of the Union soon; 2) Fed meeting - actions and Greenspeak - late Jan; 3) AMAT Q report mid Feb - numbers and Morganspeak. - Mitch